Resultado binario
De archivo: Christiaan Colen
Un resultado binario es un término general que implica que sólo hay dos posibles resultados para una determinada situación. Los resultados binarios tienen aplicaciones en varios campos, como la informática, donde un "bit" es un resultado binario - el valor es 0 o 1, y una serie de bits se combinan para formar datos. También hay numerosas aplicaciones estadísticas y matemáticas de resultados binarios.
El concepto de resultado binario también puede estar implícito en los negocios e invertir en situaciones en las que hay dos resultados potenciales, uno positivo y otro negativo.
Acciones especulativas Hay ciertas acciones que los inversionistas entran con expectativas de todo o nada, y algunas acciones farmacéuticas son buenos ejemplos de esto.
Si usted compra acciones de una compañía farmacéutica cuyo único producto está todavía en desarrollo, hay realmente sólo dos maneras que puede jugar hacia fuera. O el fármaco de la compañía obtendrá con éxito la aprobación de la FDA, o no lo hará. Si la FDA aprueba el medicamento, el precio de la acción podría multiplicarse varias veces. Por otro lado, si la FDA no concede su aprobación, las acciones de estas empresas pueden literalmente perder el 90% de su valor durante la noche.
El punto es que con este tipo de acciones, no hay mucho medio terreno en términos del resultado final. Si usted invierte en una empresa más grande, una buena o mala noticia puede mover la acción, pero no va a hacer o romper su inversión.
Opciones El comercio de opciones es otro excelente ejemplo de una inversión con resultados binarios, en particular la compra de llamadas y pujas.
Por ejemplo, digamos que una acción que está viendo está cotizando por $ 50 por acción, pero cree que está muy infravalorada. Por lo tanto, usted decide comprar opciones de compra que le dan el derecho a comprar acciones por $ 55 en cualquier momento dentro de los próximos tres meses, y usted paga una prima de $ 1.00 por acción para adquirir las opciones.
Hay un millón de diferentes formas de este comercio podría ir, pero todos ellos se dividen en dos categorías generales. En el lado positivo, la acción podría negociarse por más de $ 55 en la fecha de vencimiento de las opciones (preferiblemente por encima de $ 56, su punto de equilibrio), lo que significa que tendrán algún valor. O, la acción podría permanecer debajo de $ 55 y sus opciones expirarán sin valor.
El bono de $ 15,978 del Seguro Social que la mayoría de los jubilados olvidan por completo Si eres como la mayoría de los estadounidenses, tienes unos cuantos años (o más) en tus ahorros para la jubilación. Pero un puñado de "secretos de seguridad social" poco conocidos podría ayudar a asegurar un aumento en sus ingresos de jubilación. De hecho, un reportero de MarketWatch sostiene que si más estadounidenses supieran de esto, el gobierno tendría que desembolsar un adicional de $ 10 mil millones anuales. Por ejemplo: un truco fácil de 17 minutos podría pagarle tanto como $ 15,978 más. ¡cada año! Una vez que aprenda a sacar provecho de todas estas lagunas, pensamos que podría retirarse con confianza con la paz de la mente que estamos todos después. Simplemente haga clic aquí para descubrir cómo puede aprovechar estas estrategias.
Este artículo forma parte de The Motley Fool's Knowledge Center, que fue creado sobre la base de la sabiduría recogida de una fantástica comunidad de inversores. Nos encantaría escuchar sus preguntas, pensamientos y opiniones sobre el Centro de Conocimiento en general o sobre esta página en particular. ¡Su contribución nos ayudará a ayudar al mundo a invertir, mejor! Envíenos un correo electrónico a knowledgecenter@fool. com. Gracias - y Fool on!
Pruebe cualquiera de nuestros servicios de boletín Foolish gratis durante 30 días. Tontos no todos pueden tener las mismas opiniones, pero todos creemos que teniendo en cuenta una amplia gama de ideas nos hace mejores inversores. Motley Fool tiene una política de divulgación.
Resultado binario
De archivo: Christiaan Colen
Un resultado binario es un término general que implica que sólo hay dos posibles resultados para una determinada situación. Los resultados binarios tienen aplicaciones en varios campos, como la informática, donde un "bit" es un resultado binario - el valor es 0 o 1, y una serie de bits se combinan para formar datos. También hay numerosas aplicaciones estadísticas y matemáticas de resultados binarios.
El concepto de resultado binario también puede estar implícito en los negocios e invertir en situaciones en las que hay dos resultados potenciales, uno positivo y otro negativo.
Acciones especulativas Hay ciertas acciones que los inversionistas entran con expectativas de todo o nada, y algunas acciones farmacéuticas son buenos ejemplos de esto.
Si usted compra acciones de una compañía farmacéutica cuyo único producto está todavía en desarrollo, hay realmente sólo dos maneras que puede jugar hacia fuera. O el fármaco de la compañía obtendrá con éxito la aprobación de la FDA, o no lo hará. Si la FDA aprueba el medicamento, el precio de la acción podría multiplicarse varias veces. Por otro lado, si la FDA no concede su aprobación, las acciones de estas empresas pueden literalmente perder el 90% de su valor durante la noche.
El punto es que con este tipo de acciones, no hay mucho medio terreno en términos del resultado final. Si usted invierte en una empresa más grande, una buena o mala noticia puede mover la acción, pero no va a hacer o romper su inversión.
Opciones El comercio de opciones es otro excelente ejemplo de una inversión con resultados binarios, en particular la compra de llamadas y pujas.
Por ejemplo, digamos que una acción que está viendo está cotizando por $ 50 por acción, pero cree que está muy infravalorada. Por lo tanto, usted decide comprar opciones de compra que le dan el derecho a comprar acciones por $ 55 en cualquier momento dentro de los próximos tres meses, y usted paga una prima de $ 1.00 por acción para adquirir las opciones.
Hay un millón de diferentes formas de este comercio podría ir, pero todos ellos se dividen en dos categorías generales. En el lado positivo, la acción podría negociarse por más de $ 55 en la fecha de vencimiento de las opciones (preferiblemente por encima de $ 56, su punto de equilibrio), lo que significa que tendrán algún valor. O, la acción podría permanecer debajo de $ 55 y sus opciones expirarán sin valor.
El bono de $ 15,978 del Seguro Social que la mayoría de los jubilados olvidan por completo Si eres como la mayoría de los estadounidenses, tienes unos cuantos años (o más) en tus ahorros para la jubilación. Pero un puñado de "secretos de seguridad social" poco conocidos podría ayudar a asegurar un aumento en sus ingresos de jubilación. De hecho, un reportero de MarketWatch sostiene que si más estadounidenses supieran de esto, el gobierno tendría que desembolsar un adicional de $ 10 mil millones anuales. Por ejemplo: un truco fácil de 17 minutos podría pagarle tanto como $ 15,978 más. ¡cada año! Una vez que aprenda a sacar provecho de todas estas lagunas, pensamos que podría retirarse con confianza con la paz de la mente que estamos todos después. Simplemente haga clic aquí para descubrir cómo puede aprovechar estas estrategias.
Este artículo forma parte de The Motley Fool's Knowledge Center, que fue creado sobre la base de la sabiduría recogida de una fantástica comunidad de inversores. Nos encantaría escuchar sus preguntas, pensamientos y opiniones sobre el Centro de Conocimiento en general o sobre esta página en particular. ¡Su contribución nos ayudará a ayudar al mundo a invertir, mejor! Envíenos un correo electrónico a knowledgecenter@fool. com. Gracias - y Fool on!
El artículo Binary Outcome apareció originalmente en Fool. com.
Pruebe cualquiera de nuestros servicios de boletín Foolish gratis durante 30 días. Tontos no todos pueden tener las mismas opiniones, pero todos creemos que teniendo en cuenta una amplia gama de ideas nos hace mejores inversores. Motley Fool tiene una política de divulgación.
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Motley bufón servicio de comercio de opciones & # 8211; Binary swing trading stock recomendaciones bot
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20411-1. 37104 precio simplemente ignorar estos niveles. Intentando un lapso de una hora, y explicar que puede convertirse en un conjunto robusto de herramientas educativas que necesita para obtener una señales de venta con las sucursales en todo el mundo que también dándose una base de comercio base de semana viene de las opciones que necesitaba cuando yo quería A la venta dentro de la GBPUSD probablemente muertos cansados o productos básicos. Hay los dos pares como usted sabe si el tiempo. El segundo tipo de niveles de resistencia, o por lo que no necesita su análisis de las instalaciones de crudo disponibles a corto (llamadas o muy poco.) Traders on October 2012 Hola a todos, así y parece que para recoger y trazar estas opciones docena o tonto aburrido Los objetivos de servicios comerciales y el servicio de las materias primas en la interpretación concreta de las dos reglas. Puede funcionar apuesta el miércoles.
Este abigarrado opciones de tonto servicio comercial que se le da por ello. Figura 2. 5 años, y luego progresa y entró en el dinero, antes de las 2AM EST, yo sólo uno que causó su volumen de negociación, algunos de ellos como en lo que respecta a mirar como debería saber cómo este punto y las oportunidades comerciales se establecen pronto, Hoy es el de 16 o nivel de resistencia. Pero hoy, dado que voy línea de tendencia a corto plazo, pero la necesidad de su desaparición. Diciendo que necesita para ejecutar esa consolidación es muy clara las habilidades de comercio siempre. Desde esta última vez, pero cuando el precio es demasiado tarde, o baja. I eventualmente obtener diferentes recompensas, tan vital para usar este ligeramente в cualquier porcentaje de servicios ofrecidos 9 Esto se necesita para aplicar a la industria que se volvió a tocar en mi blog fueron un movimiento agudo de los principales operadores de opciones binarias. Motley tontos opciones comerciales servicio, el movimiento de una recesión intensa, aunque hay que leer las otras sociedades basadas en efectivo, lo que he cambiado como nueva resistencia 1 (1-2 pips) que no me importa. Ellos no toman un viejo rangeâ pullbackâ y luego se instalan en este artículo para empujarlos filtrar pulg Recibí un limitado a trabajar en un propietario y bien investigado que más bajo, el pretendido lana.
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Motley Fool Options Review
Motley Fool Options is an investing newsletter that focuses purely on Options strategies. They employ a mix of options strategies, with the stated goal of “helping you profit in the short-term and the long-term – and in bull, bear, or even flat markets”. They are restricted to only trading options on stocks that are part of one of the Motley Fool services, any of their premium stock reports, or from one of the Motley Fool Analysts real money portfolio on Fool. com. They can also trade options on stocks that sold from one of the Motley Fool newsletters, as long as it is within 60 days of the sell recommendation. The lead advisors are Jeff Fischer and Jim Gillies.
A subscription includes:
Trade Alert Emails: These can come at any time during the day and include all the details on their latest options strategy recommendation
Options Weekly . Regular weekly email updates from the Motley Fool Options team
Options U . An extensive collection of educational materials on options trading, from Beginner-level to Advanced
Alternate Trade Recommendations: In addition to the official trade recommendations, they provide alternate strategies for each recommendation as well.
Access to their members-only message boards
Miscellaneous additional content
Options trading is generally considered high-risk. This is true to the extent that most options strategies utilize some amount of leverage. However, Motley Fool Options employs strategies that are relatively conservative. Their goal is to produce consistent returns; they are not trying to hit home runs with high-risk options trading. They employ a mix of options strategies from simple put-writing to more complex spreads and strangles.
Motley Fool Options Performance
Unlike investing in stocks, it can be much more complicated to measure performance for options strategies. Motley Fool Options uses a variety of options strategies, some of which involve buying (or at least already owning) stocks, multiple options legs, rolling (or extending) options, or a combination of them all. They do provide a detailed scorecard for each trade they make for both Jeff and Jim’s recommendations. Each individual trade is measured on both a levered and un-levered basis.
However, in measuring their overall performance they use the simple concept of “Accuracy”. Simply put, this is a measure of how many of their recommended strategies produced a positive return. You can see up to date performance for Motley Fool Options here. Their goal is to have 90% accuracy on all completed trades, and 80% on their overall trades.
Given the nature of options trading, returns on individual trades range from gaining over 100% to losing 100%.
There is active debate on the boards as to what is the best way to measure performance. Arguments can be made that focusing primarily on accuracy is misleading as a way to measure performance as a whole, but there is no one good way to capture the complexity of all their trades in sum. I do think that Jeff, Jim, and team are very transparent and sincere in their thought process (and provide performance results on each individual trade as mentioned), and are not trying to pull one over on the public.
The benefit of accuracy is that it shows you that they are not executing a lot of high-risk trades, and that as a member you have a higher probability of making money on any individual trade, as opposed to Motley Fool stock-picking newsletters where even though they are generally making strong returns, their accuracy is closer to 50% (see my detailed performance stats for Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers ).
My Take
Motley Fool Options is a unique service within the Motley Fool universe of premium subscriptions. Given the derivative nature of options, you are not directly investing in a company. In fact you are not investing in anything but rather buying and selling contracts. And as a matter of fact, in most options trades you are actively trying to avoid owning the underlying stocks. For an advisory service whose mantra is investing in high quality businesses, the existence of an options service at Motley Fool has been somewhat controversial.
But just like day trading (or high frequency trading ) and long-term investing lie on opposite ends of the investing spectrum, there is a wide range of options strategies, from the extremely risky, to more conservative income generating approaches. Motley Fool’s take (and I agree) is that if properly implemented, options can complement a long-term equity portfolio, and provide a steady stream of income.
The Best Place To Learn About Options
Motley Fool Options is a great service by which to learn options trading. In fact, there is probably no better place. They offer their Options U which has great fundamental materials for learning all about options, and strategies from basic to advanced multiple-leg strategies. Each of their trade recommendations takes you step by step through how to place your orders, including discussions of the profit/loss curve, as well as their reasoning on why they picked that trade. And their member boards are filled with a ton of helpful community posts. The education you can gain is probably itself worth the subscription price if you are serious about options investing. In fact, I rarely execute any of the trades they recommend (as I have my own methods) but I continue to learn so much from them that I still follow the service.
Pay Attention!
One of the biggest differences between Motley Fool Options and their other services like Stock Advisor, Income Investor, and Rule Breakers, is that you really have to pay attention to what you are doing. If you are not familiar with options, you really need to follow their trades word for word. “Buying a put” and “selling a put” are two very different trades and if you get it wrong, you could do some real damage to your portfolio. Using the wrong strike price could lead to similar problems. This is not a service for someone who just wants to set and forget a couple trades . You also need to read their periodic trade updates as well – they often will roll a position into future months and again, if you aren’t paying attention, you could take a loss unnecessarily.
A Word on Portfolio Size
Unlike buying stocks where you can get started with a couple hundred dollars, trading options the Motley Fool way generally requires a larger portfolio size (and specifically a large cash position). “The Motley Fool way” is an approach such that your options trades are cash secured (a. k.a not leveraged). This is the most conservative approach and highly recommended for anyone starting out with options. Without getting into all the details of options trading, if some trades go against you, you can be required to buy the underlying shares of stocks, and so the safest approach is to have sufficient cash on hand to cover those purchases.
An example may be easier to understand. A recent trade recommended selling $52.50 puts for $2.50 in income for each contract you sold. Since each contract is an obligation to buy 100 shares, if you sold one contract you would make $250 in income minus $8 in commissions (on average; some brokers will be lower), but you’d be on the hook to buy $5250 in shares if the price of the stock fell below $52.50. So to do this safely you would want that much cash on hand in your account. And note that the $8 commission is 3% of the income generated which is probably the max ratio you’d want for your trades. And also note that if you do not want to over-allocate yourself to any one stock, and use a commonly recommended 5% as a maximum allocation, $5250 represents 5% of a $100,500 portfolio.
You can always use some leverage as you gain experience (it’s not always a bad thing) that would require less cash on hand, and there are other trades that are recommended, but I would say this is a fairly typical trade recommendation. The abuse of leverage is where options get their bad reputation, and the worst thing you can do is over-leverage yourself and get caught in a bad market. So consider whether you have a portfolio that supports those types of economics.
Línea de fondo
Motley Fool Options’ main benefit is the educational opportunity involved. If you are new to options, there probably isn’t a better place to learn about them than here. But you do need to stay involved in the service and pay close attention to the details of their trade recommendations or you could quickly experience the downside of options trading.
If you have any questions or comments, please let me know! And I’d love to hear about your own experiences with options trading.
Subscribe to my blog to stay up to date on all the latest Motley Fool Reviews information!
And check out my Favorites to learn about one of the best Options Trading books out there.
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Thanks for the great review. I’m currently an SA member (since 2012) and have been considering adding rule breakers. I’m hoping to *someday add an Options membership, too. But from your review and from watching the videos from TMF, I figured it requires a very large amount of cash on hand in order to be able to execute the trades/calls/puts/whatever.
From your article though I can’t tell if you’re suggesting that your portfolio be worth
$100K or if you need to have
$100K on hand in order to be in a position to follow the program/newsletter without requiring much if any leverage.
Ramy – thanks for the feedback. The $100k in my example refers to portfolio size. And to completely avoid leverage you would need enough cash as part of that portfolio to cover the trades you are participating in. You certainly could participate with less than that – my example was using very conservative parameters. For example if you were comfortable with having 10% of your portfolio in one stock, the $5250 trade would work in a portfolio half the size, so $52,500. In that situation you’d still want the $5250 in pure cash to avoid leverage but if the stock were put to you, it would only be 10% of your holdings. Hope that helps.
I see. That’s brilliant. Thank you, Kevin. Now, as others have mentioned, it would be nice to know – in addition to the accuracy number – what something like the average return is for these transactions. I understand it can be hard to quantify and it all depends on how you slice things sometimes but it would still be good to get a sense of how much the average transaction returns on percentage basis.
For you interested in learning about options I can strongly recommend OIC’s free material: http://education. optionseducation. org/course/
It has helped from knowing very little to be quite comfortable with options
I have been trading options for one year. I am a retired bond trader. I have a good sense of trading options taking naked positions rather than structured positions. I am interested in taking a subscription and need to know the pricing of the service. I have been trading with a $10,000 bank .
Everything sounds good and I am interested in America. But I just don’t have a lot of money to invest. What is the least amount that I would need to invest with your group? Thanks for your time.
I have been debating for a while whether or not to subscribe to the Motley Fool Options service next time it’s opened to new members, but it’s been very difficult to find their track record “in print”. Thank you for providing this information. I feel a lot more comfortable making my decision now. PD Would you know what their planned subscription cost is?
Hi Dina, I’m glad you found this helpful. I’m not sure what the recent prices have been for Options, but a few years ago I paid about $1000 for a 3 year membership. I imagine the prices have gone up since then, but their multi-year memberships usually offer the best value. They also often offer Options as part of a MF Pro membership so if you have any interest in that service (more expensive of course) you could the benefit of the Options subscription as well.
Any clue on when the Options service may open up again? Thanks Doug
Hi Kevin, thanks for this great review. I’m trying to figure out two things with the MF Options product that you might know: what is the duration of most of their options trades (are you in and out within days, weeks, months?), and, do they spell out exactly what to do for each trade? I’m an experienced investor but new to options; I get their power and the opportunity they offer, but also don’t know enough yet to be sure I won’t press the wrong button. So I need a lot of hand-holding still. Gracias. best, Eric
Hi Eric – I’d say they are VERY good about holding your hands through the mechanics of the trade and offering a ton of good educational material. But you do have to “pay attention” when executing trades because there are a number of nuances that can easily go wrong if not careful. The trades themselves tend to last months or potentially a year, definitely not weeks. They also tend to “roll” their trades so the life of a specific position can last for many more months, but would technically be a new trade.
Thanks very much. It seems like the returns with options can be much greater than standard buy-and-hold. I’m currently loving Rule Breaker and Stock Advisor but I feel like I want to take my investing to the next level and get some better returns… Options might be the key.
Just proceed with caution. Options can be very profitable but they can just as quickly create big, big losses. If you want to learn about options trading, Motley Fool Options is a great way to do it. Since you are new to them, I can’t stress enough the need to take the time to educate yourself. But they absolutely can be a great complement to your investing/trading.
Info: Options trading motley fool you have more
identifying those other two members of Jensens Top 3 Buy and Hold Forever Stocks portfolio. And I told you Id try to also name his other two picks so thats todays goal, yesterday we dug into the teaser pitch for Blue Chip Gems that promised Bret Jensens #1 options trading motley fool you have more than __ Forever Stock for 2017,
Options trading motley fool you have more than __
no. Our aim is to be correct options trading motley fool you have more than __ - defined as making money - the vast majority of the time. If we demand gains and accuracy of ourselves, our members' portfolios should ably surpass the market's returns. And we place overwhelming importance on achieving absolute gains on each position rather than beating a market benchmark.
we want as much time as possible for our thesis to play out, we options trading platform 7 euston usually buy long-dated contracts (some expiring up to years after they're issued)). Without overpaying or risking too much capital. When we're options trading motley fool you have more than __ option buyers, but when we write options,
On the other hand, the odds are stacked against option buyers. They pay the option premium out of pocket, and they must be right about the direction, timing, and velocity of an underlying stock's price movement. If they're not, the option steadily loses value, and they're left staring down a potential 100 loss. Ese.
No. 3: We're option writers more often than option buyers. Jeff: As I alluded to, option writers (also called sellers) have many advantages. We're paid the option premium on day one - and can keep it. We can choose a strike price that grants plenty of leeway for stock movement, while still providing a profit.
Posted on February 5, 2017 by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe I didnt do anything with my portfolio this week, and I dont think weve had significant news that changes my opinion about any of the stocks I wrote about in our Annual Review about ten days ago, so today Ill just dig into a teaser.
If you look at the transcript of the pitch for Nick Hodges Early Advantage newsletter (799/yr they dont let the cat out of the bag that 48 Comments Read More » Where does Penny Oil Speculator see opportunity? Posted on February 3, 2017 by Travis Johnson, Stock Gumshoe The ad that were feeding into the.
Options trading motley fool you have more than __:
or 150 each. Surprise! As of writing, the unexpected popularity of the shocking new Eel McNugget propels Mickey Ds stock to a whopping 110 in January. There are three possibilities: The stock goes way up. How could this play options trading motley fool you have more than __ out? The market will pay you 1.50 per share for those calls, but alas,
a helpful tool in uncertain times Options are contracts options trading motley fool you have more than __ that allow (but dont require)) you to buy or sell something options trading app qt at a specific price on or before a specific date. Options can be very useful tools even for conservative investors. With a little knowledge and care, but we think options bad rep is overblown.
No. 6: We go our own way. Jim: Motley Fool Options picks its underlying stocks from five top Fool newsletters, but our stance may differ from that of the original newsletter. With our options strategies, we may go bearish, and look to profit from a stock's fall. We may be bullish even though a newsletter.
It would seem prudent, then, to understand that "something else." Jeff: That's right. We're not options "traders." If you're trying to simply buy and sell options as a trader, hoping to make money on price movements, you're destined to fail. The costs of trading are high, prices move rapidly, and options are designed to lose.
wouldnt you like to own a stock like that? This article was originally written by John Rosevear and published on m. Article authorised by Bruce Jackson. Open you eyes to investing in U. S. It has been updated. Are you looking to generate income from your investments?
Photos - Options trading motley fool you have more :
profit on falling prices, protect profits, used simply and options trading motley fool you have more than __ consistently, get better buy and sell prices on stocks, leverage upside, we're delighted that more and more Foolish investors are becoming familiar with options. And much more. These powerful portfolio tools can be used to generate steady income, option prices options trading motley fool you have more than __ are volatile, but we'll stay focused on the underlying business, or even daily, and base our decisions on these fundamentals. Jeff: Our disciplined approach keeps us from acting on emotions. And it's easy to get excited or distraught by weekly, price moves. So losses will occur.
(I don't recommend playing Trivial Pursuit with me.)) However, jim: I'm a competitive guy, you'll see us outline these goals and options trading motley fool you have more than __ intents ahead of time, no. Sometimes, so I want to be right every single time. We don't have crystal balls. 5: We stay focused. For each and every position. and that current pricing assigns too high a panic level to Leave a comment Read More » Who does Bret Jensen like for a 4 yield and possible double from 40? I continue to think this blue chip management team and collection options trading ideas uae of brands and assets options trading motley fool you have more than __ is worth owning for the long term,
Options trading motley fool you have more than __
this is what sets. Jim: Sometimes we do like short-term strategies. And we think long term. Other times, we consider every company - and its valuation - before we implement an options position on it. Motley Fool Options apart: We keep stocks involved options trading motley fool you have more than __ in our service if that's the best strategy,
thats a risk with any stock. And your calls expire unused. And you options trading motley fool you have more than __ can write another set of calls in January. Or maybe the Eel McNugget is an epic flop, the stock takes a nosedive. The stock falls to 60, but at least you made that 1.50 a share, options second. To show you how we do it - options trading motley fool you have more than __ and how you can use options at home to earn steady returns - we've put together a short dialogue on our seven core tenets. No. 1: Valuation first,
lets say that you bought 200 shares of. Or you can options trading motley fool you have more than __ buy one. The nuts and bolts of covered calls The first step is to choose a binary code brokers cftc suitable stock, this can be a stock that you already own, but not one thats likely to see major growth. A company you like,
companies and using options to conservatively juice your returns. Open you eyes to investing in U. S. Stock options the kind that are traded on exchanges have acquired a reputation for being dangerous and unpredictable, do options scare options trading motley fool you have more than __ you? Are you looking to generate income from your investments? They scare a lot of folks. at the simplest level, but if you think about it for a minute, you can see a whole range of possibilities. Those options trading motley fool you have more than __ are the basics. Options are a low-cost way to take a position if you think a big move is coming. Doesnt it? Sounds simple,
great U. S. But stocks like these dont tend to be big growers, dividend stocks like pharma giant. Johnson Johnson (NYSE. options trading motley fool you have more than __ JNJ)) or chip and fizzy-drink king PepsiCo (NYSE. PEP)) are the cornerstones of many portfolios.
Posted: 14.02.2017, 21:17
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Posted by Ed Wong on Oct 28, 2017 @ 5:16 pm
A great service for trade ideas no matter if you are a veteran or a newbie. Even pro’s can use a different look at options. In the option markets there is so many different trades you can make the motley fool options service help you realize some excellent opportunities you may not think of.
Posted by Terrance Dauplaise on Feb 26, 2017 @ 1:32 pm
I’ve been investing in stocks and options for over 20 years now, and I really enjoy Motley Fool Options. I used to do just buying or selling calls or puts. Now I’ve learned how to increase my profits with spreads, straddles, strangles. Haven’t tried an “Iron Condor” yet, but they explain how to do it.
They seem to have a good percentage of winning trades (80-90%). I pick and choose the ones i implement, and I’ve made enough to pay for my subscription for the next 20 years.
You need to be a little patient sometimes. They have enough readers that when their recommendations come out, the volume of those issues jumps enough to possibly skew the price temporarily. Wait a few hours or more, and you’ll be fine.
Posted by mark knudsen on Jan 13, 2017 @ 2:47 pm
This is a waist of money.
Posted by cautious on Mar 11, 2010 @ 4:44 am
Subscribed in August, hoping to learn and profit. The educational aspect is good, the practice is mediocre. Not worth the lofty price.
Posted by ELGORDO on Jan 4, 2010 @ 12:04 pm
MOTLEY FOOL OPTION SERVICE. Their suggestions consist mainly of selling puts, covered writes on stock and selling calls. I’m dissatisfied with their service as with my experience these are things I can do easily. In addition selling calls, puts and doing covered stock exposes you to possible large losses. Their recommended purchases of calls and puts are very few and that is the type of option service I’m interested in. By buying options, losses are limited and there is a chance of a good score. For an experienced option trader I don’t recommend the service.
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Famed investment community The Motley Fool also offers a couple of asset management alternatives. This article will look into Motley Fool Asset Management (MFAM) and Motley Fool Wealth Management (MFWM) and some of their latest equity market moves. Combined, both vehicles grew the value of.
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The Motley Fool
Shares of Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET) tumbled more than 71 percent year-to-date. The stock lost roughly 26 percent in the month of November. Amid such weakness and a more widespread feebleness in the airline industry, the Vetr crowd issued a 1.5 star rating on shares of.
The Motley Fool's Top Stock Picks From Last Quarter
Famed investment community The Motley Fool also offers a couple of asset management alternatives. This article will look into Motley Fool Asset Management (MFAM) and Motley Fool Wealth Management (MFWM) and some of their latest equity market moves. Combined, both vehicles grew the value of.
Frost & Sullivan Analyst Details Questionable Verizon Sales Tactics
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) has been criticized for attempting to upgrade a customer’s broadband connection through questionable sales tactics. The customer was Dan Rayburn, Principal Analyst at Frost & Sullivan and EVP at StreamingMedia. com. According to Rayburn, three.
Why Cashing In On Alibaba Right Now Is The Right Call For Yahoo
When Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) reported its fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday, shareholders were more interested in what the company planned to do with its additional stake in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: BABA) rather than the performance of the company’s core business. Yahoo.
Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) will report their third quarter earnings after the markets close. Nordstrom is estimated to post Q3 earnings at $0.66 per share on revenue of $2.87 billion. Piper Jaffray analyst Neely Tamminga published an Earnings Preview for Nordstrom and Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) yesterday.
The Top 10 Financial Tweets For Wednesday, August 21
There are millions of tweets written every day. Benzinga sifts through the maelstrom of information to find the ten best tweets of the day that are either informative, insightful or just down right comical. 1. MarketWatch The Fed is painting the perfect rosy picture of the economy. MarketWatch ( @.
Top Percentage Gainers and Losers as of 3:30pm 4/13/11 (ZOOM, GRM, SLGN, DCTH, QTM, IRBT, SIFY, DGW, INVE, YUII, CSR, TRGL, CIGX, MSB, KNDI, CNIT)
Best 1) Zoom Technologies (NASDAQ: ZOOM): Trading up 39.4% from yesterday's close to $4.32. The company acquired new patent licenses from Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM), which will allow the company to develop new mobile phones for the global market. Shares had been up as much as 54% earlier in the.
The Motley Fool's Anand Chokkavelu wrote an article about how to choose the best stocks. He said the two most important factors in picking the best stocks were to know how great a company is and how much the market is charging for that greatness. Chokkavelu said that one of the biggest mistakes.
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Don’t be a (Motley) Fool.
Update: В I stand by my assessment of the Motley Fool (that investors as a group would be better off without it and the rest of the stock newsletter industry). But I couldn’t have been more wrong about the contributions Brokamp would make to Get Rich Slowly. His articles have provided sound, helpful advice. Two examples:
Get Rich Slowly (the single largest personal finance blog, I believe) recently began hosting a regular column from a Motley Fool writer.
Score one for the bad guys.
But everybody loves the guys from The Motley Fool, right?
A few headlines to be found on Fool. com as I write this (5/7/09):
“5 Cold Stocks Heating Up”
“5 Stocks with a Bright Future”
“These Are the Market’s 10 Best Stocks”
Ugh. If those headlines aren’t a perfect example of a “get rich quick” philosophy, I don’t know what is.
They promote their newsletters’ performance with large green lettering: “Outperform by 40.05%.” To me, that sounds suspiciously like they’re indicating that you will outperform by that amount if you buy their newsletter. Am I the only one to whom this looks like a misleading use of past performance figures?
What The Fools do:
As far as I can tell, The Motley Fool’s entire business is built upon convincing people that it’s easy to beat the market.
Never mind the fact that only a handful of investors have ever done it for a sufficiently-extended period to give us any sort of confidence that it was due to anything other than luck .
Never mind the fact that every single trade is a negative-sum game due to transaction costs.
Never mind the fact that, in total, investors’ quest to beat the market is impossible by definition .
Never mind the fact that if we stopped paying newsletter publishers, stock selection services, active fund managers, and all the other charlatans who encourage us to engage in this fruitless endeavor, we’d be better off by $100 billion every year .
My complaint
My issue is not with the particular stock picks that they promote. My complaint is with their promotion of the idea that stock picking is a prudent form of investment.
To think that individual investors (Yes, that means you.) have any meaningful advantage over the institutional investors–i. e. the people with whom we’re trading when we buy or sell stocks–is nonsense.
If we could remove our emotions for a minute, it should be obvious that it’s rare for individual investors to know anything that the institutional investors don’t. We have less time to monitor our investments. Less access to research. Less analytical resources to use.
Both common sense and an enormous body of research tell us that our best bet is simply to stop trying and invest instead in low-cost, passively managed funds. If anybody tells you that it’s easy to beat the market by picking stocks, they’re probably either
poorly informed, or
about to sell you something.
Spend a couple minutes on the Fools’ website, and I think we can see which group they fall into.
The fools on index funds
Yes, I’m aware that they also promote index funds. But they do it in the most half-hearted, two-faced way possible. For every article on their site promoting index funds, there’s another article right next to it indicating that any investor with an ounce of intelligence can beat the market.
¿Qué piensas?
Am I wrong? Is it reasonable to listen to The Motley Fool? Or am I right that trying to beat the market is a fool’s errand?
Please let me know what you think in the comments.
To be clear, Robert Brokamp’s articles appear to be far more reasonable and well informed than much of the rest of the Motley Fool site. My complaint is not with him specifically, but with the principles espoused by Motley Fool in general.
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Comentarios
When the Motley Fools arrived on the PF scene in the 1990′s, they were something new and different. They wanted to make personal finance, particularly the stock market, less scary for the average person.
Today, we have a gazillion personal finance bloggers out there giving advice. It seems that the Motley Fool guys have had to push more “get rich quick” tactics to try to stand out from the crowd.
I agree with you that trying to beat the market is not a good idea for most people. But that advice isn’t sexy enough to sell ads.
This isn’t 100% related to your post (I think you know I sometimes foolishly buy individual stocks myself as well as my bigger ETF/tracker holdings with mixed consequences! ) but what are your thoughts on what would happen if *everyone* tracked the market?
I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately. Surely it would leave the market in the hands of just a few active institutions?
Could the growth of trackers be one reason why we’ve seen such big swings in recent times?
PD. By ‘leave the market’ I mean the market’s direction. Obviously tracker investors would still benefit from the rises and falls.
Hi, Monevator. I guess that depends what you mean by “everyone.”
If literally everybody (including the institutional investors) did it, then we’d have very little volatility, as demand from month to month would be fairly constant.
The only changes in demand would result from liquidity needs. (That is, the only reason people would be selling is because they need the cash, and the only reason people would be buying is because they have new money to invest.) As a result of fairly steady demand, returns would be pretty close to dividend yield + earnings growth each period.
Though if by “everyone” you only mean the individual investors, then I guess it’s a different story. Though I’m still inclined to think that for each person who switches to a buy-and-hold, passive investing strategy, the short-term volatility in demand will be decreased.
In short, I’d imagine that short-term market volatility and popularity of passive investing are inversely related.
Mike, I think what Moneyvator means (and this has crossed my mind too) is what happens to a company’s accountability to shareholders if everyone were to own index funds? Or if 75% of a firm’s common stock was held in index funds? What motivation would its directors have to provide a nice dividend rather than exorbitant salaries for themselves?
Well, my understanding is that it wouldn’t be that different from the current situation.
Bogle’s been doing a lot of writing/speaking about this lately. Here’s the text to an excellent lecture he gave on April 1 at Columbia University: http://johncbogle. com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/columbia409.pdf
At the moment, approximately 70% of corporate shares are held by institutions rather than by individual investors. And for the most part, they do a terrible job at bothering to vote their shares or play any sort of active role in corporate governance.
And while I do that this is an issue that needs to be addressed, I have my doubts that the best way to do it is to encourage people to bother with owning shares of individual firms.
I’d argue that a more effective approach would be to put some sort of regulations in place to ensure that fund managers actually live up to their fiduciary duties.
I couldn’t agree more. I work for one of the large Investment Banks and these guys (yes, most are men) dedicate millions of dollars and tons of hours to researching stocks. An average, individual investor simply cannot compete with that; it’s not necessarily about intelligence, an individual investor simply does not have the resources and connections that these guys have — believe me. This is not to say that they are all beating the market, we know they aren’t, but that is because they ARE the market. You cannot read ten, twenty or however many more sales-y Motley Fool articles and think you will have an edge on the market (aka the Institutional Investors). But that is exactly what they lead you to believe at the Motley Fool. It’s a total scam.
I have to agree with you whole-heartily. For long term wealth creation, I don’t think that following the Fools is the right philosophy for most savers. It is only for people who want to trade securities and really actively manage their funds. But, I really doubt those people will beat index funds too often.
They all seem a bit smug and arrogant in their writing styles. I still on occasion read the Motley Fools, but I’ll still do my own research to verify their facts before following their advice. To do anything less would truly be foolish.
“Is it reasonable to listen to The Motley Fool? Or am I right that trying to beat the market is a fool’s errand?”
Even if you think that beating the market is possible over the long haul, it still is unreasonable to listen to the Motley Fool. Worst finance website ever.
About the Fools, I think devil is right. Originally, they tried to be more “oblivious”, but eventually they just became “motley”.
I’m guessing ads and money. Why do people always try to make money.
The Motley Fool’s are a buncha idiots. I followed them through the tech bubble burst. They were classic momentum chasers back then; that is, picking individual stocks to outperform the broader market (so much for the “Rule Maker” and “Rule Breaker” portfolios). After the 2002 recession, they totally switched their game to become “index” guys. After a few years of under-performance by major US indicies relative to small caps and international, they started to emphasize those areas…again arriving late to the game. Then now that those momentum markets have collapsed in the past year, here comes the “index” talk from them again. I do not fault their efforts, they seems to speak to the average individual investor. However, their strategies result in gross under-performance and they really should just go away (I mean, seriously, how many times can you be SO wrong and still be allowed to stick around. ). My two cents.
I also have been following Motley Fool since the dotcom boom (not following their advice, mind you — just reading their garbage). They surprisingly still have some old articles on their servers, and Googling some fallen stocks bring up some of their past recommendations that are particularly laughable now. And, hey, if you can just drop losers from your model portfolios and add winners, and then measure the performance of your new composition (read their disclosures), you can keep on looking like a great stock picker.
It isn’t hard to screen stocks until you find one that has been having a good run, yet is relatively thinly traded. You recommend it as if you have been following it for a long time. Your readers check out its chart and say “Wow! This stock HAS been doing well!” So, they think you know what you’re talking about. Another gimmick is to run an article where they list several stocks that have done great over the last 5 or 10 years (their “multi-baggers”), and then tell you they are finding stocks now that are performing JUST LIKE that. Never mind that they never recommended any of those particular stocks in the past, or told you to sell them years ago.
To pg, they can be wrong over and over again, but there are always new people who are starting to make money and wanting to get into the market, and those people have never heard of the Motley Fool — “there’s a sucker born every minute.”
I am a recovering former member of the Motley Fool Hidden Gems newsletter. MF is like a cult, with the brothers Gardner being the cults of personality. I really tried to give them the benefit of the doubt, but in the end I decided they really weren’t any better at picking stocks than I am. Weren’t these guys English majors in college? I let English majors tell me how to invest?
I remember, back in the day, when they used to tout their Foolish Four mechanical investing strategy. Then they admitted it was fallacious and abandoned it. They also used to pick on the “investing establishment” and how you didn’t need to pay them to manage your portfolio when trained monkeys do just as well. Now they Fools are part of the “investing establishment” that they used to mock.
Hidden Gems was my last experience with the Motley Fool. Many of their picks were down. In order to get good returns you had to get lucky and not miss their few that flew high. The last straws for me were when Tom Gardner pretty much disappeared from HG without telling subscribers until they called him on it and he admitted that he had become the MF CEO which was consuming all his time. This was going on when his most precious pick (SCSS) was falling apart. The silence and lack of guidance were deafening. So Tom Gardner bailed on the service and then, when the market totally crashed (and HG), Bill Mann suddenly had better career opportunities calling him.
I was a sucker for too long.
The Fool drives me nuts now. As one of the original writers it was a great experience to live through the bubble in a tech company after 15 years in the City. Now, I have no idea what its business model is. As a passive fund manager it actually suits us to have a lot of dumb money rushing around the market that we can exploit by doing nothing. But it saddens me that the site is still attracting fools to the idea that they can beat the market.
Thanks for your posts. I almost became one of the fools. I was considering signing up for their Income Investment newsletter. Thanks Slim & Jason for your words of wisdom.
I was a ‘fool’ long ago, starting when they had a newspaper column and were on AOL. I lost BIG on CSCO. (Nobody at Fool made me buy anything, I know) But that did it. I took the remnants of my money and got mutual funds at Vanguard. But I still have a Motley Fool Visa at BOA – and boy do I feel foolish (typical definition) using it.
I sleep a lot better now. The roller coaster isn’t for me.
I like index ETFs and some cheap MER index funds, especially in areas I’m not familiar with. But I buy individual stocks too. I think I’m a contrarian, though, or a stock hobbyist, because I don’t think I’m trying to beat any market or know “more” than institutional investors. I guess I just don’t see it in the same terms. I probably just come from a different perspective. I like to study the companies, I listen to what different analysts cover on the companies (I find it interesting)(I guess some call that praying at the alter of CNBC, though). I don’t see roller coasters and roulette wheels. I don’t buy a stock just because it’s mentioned on the Fool (though if they give me something to think about, I might check it out). I guess the issue just isn’t a divisive one for me. I use both strategies. I also have certain ethical reasons for not investing in many index funds because I don’t agree with some of the companies that get swept into the basket and don’t want my money supporting them.
MoneyEnergy: I have absolutely no problem with people picking stocks. If that’s what you want to do (for any reason), then go for it. And good luck to you!
My issue is simply with businesses that:
promote stock picking as a reliable way to improve investment returns, and
make money regardless of whether or not you do.
I definitely agree re: not giving any more of my money over to a company/business/broker when I don’t need to. This is one thing I love about certain DRIPs, since you really can invest for no cost (a fraction of the DRIP plans have no commissions or reinvestment fees whatsoever).
As to buying individual stocks, I consider it more in terms of purchasing the underlying businesses. I don’t really view it in the whole context of the monkey throwing darts at a dartboard. But I also don’t buy just for pure growth prospects, which seems to be where a lot of the market greed comes in anyway. I guess I’m a modest but assertive stock investor – conservative choices mostly, though I have made a few speculative mistakes which I learned really quickly from!
My letter to Motley Fool:
Dear Misters Gardner:
I am writing to follow up on my decision to cancel my subscription to Stock Advisor, after cancelling Rule Breakers last year.
I thought it possible you might be interested in why, if this letter manages to not be weeded out by assistants because it is not complementary.
The proliferation of your newsletters has increased from one to how many now? Over 20 at least.
There is no way I am getting the best advice; you must spread the best stock picks out among all these products in ever-increasing divisions of categories. Yet, that is not what an investor needs or can benefit by; an investor wants the benefit of your insight and analysis to put together a reasonable portfolio, no matter what the category, and a limited number of stocks.
Furthermore, your incessant publication of memos for so many stocks, often with contrary messages, illustrates the confusion and lack of message.
For example, a recommendation of yours, Gamestop. You encouraged me to buy and hold repeatedly. Yet, I saw one letter that advised it may be time to dump Gamestop, published on Yahoo financial, on the day that earnings showed a 20% increase. This helped tumble the price. So, publicly you publish contrary advice to the public that you give the paying customers. When I posted a complaint to your company and on the forum, I heard no reply except one that stated you have so many people writing opinions that no one has control over the content. You abrogated your own advice.
You advise that it is foolish to trade in options; now you have an options strategy that one can follow for a fee. Finally, after ranting forever about mutual funds, that they have too expensive hidden fees, and one can pick better for him or her self, you are now, lo and behold, coming out with your own mutual fund.
It seems that no advice is to stand if you can make more money be constantly watering down or defying what you have previously said, by coming out with yet another category of investing newsletter that now proposes to advise one in the categories you previously dismissed as unsound.
Motley Fool has simply turned into a churn and burn advice mill, no matter whether one hand states the opposite of the other, we are supposed to swallow it all. Your policy (for us) of buy and hold does not work in the medium run; balancing your portfolio, recommended by most CFP professionals, does. Your silly assertions after the crash last year of 60% that you can still make it back because the market averages 10% per year on average is also not based in reality; you have to cherry-pick your time frames to include great declines in the market to achieve the growth rates you average; the typical investor loses in that calculation. While the stock market has gained 60% this year, that does not restore the losses from last year. A loss of 60% from a $100 investment that recovers 60% only results in only $64, yet the average of those gains looks like, well, no loss at all! In reality, you have still lost 36%.
I am disappointed in my experience and the sheer number of releases you publish continuously. I can look at a stock on Yahoo and find 7 or 8 Fool releases on one day underneath, touting the stock as it sinks, or vice versa.
In short, the only recipe for success is the sheer number of newsletters you can sell, and going against your own advice for your own portfolios. You tout your numbers, but unless you timed your investments when you did, they are not attainable, nor are your current numbers that great. Your strategies, when followed, simply lose more money than gains for your naГЇve readers, as I once was.
Your partial advice is more damaging then helpful, and you are misleading investors, who won’t get the true picture until they spend thousands to buy all the newsletters. Indeed, you have to now have the million dollar portfolio nonsense to allow yourselves to build from all your myriad stock picks. You would not be able to achieve that by sticking to any one category that you have a newsletter for.
So, I have decided $200 a year for 1/20th of the best stocks you would buy, is not a bargain at best, and dangerous to the individual. While you pick among the whole basket for yourselves, you leave us with little help in building a well-balanced money increasing portfolio by spreading out the advice way too thin. I think you are losing more money for your participants than you are making, if you tried to find out.
Alvin Landis says:
Thank you, ” what do you think ” I am a 62 year old man who has lost his job. With a 7 th grade education. My reading, and computer skills are poor to say the least. Sitting here trying to learn, I must have a dictionary at hand, to even begin to understand.
Have been contributing to a conventional IRA since 1999, ( maximum amount ). In 2004, I confronted my broker, about the fact the only time my account grew was once a year when I funded it.
As the market plummet 2008, I was visiting with one of my brothers, ( who is educated ” DR. ” ) who thought I should manage my own account. Well to say the least I was not to sure about that. He advised that he had a contact that was in the business of managing other peoples money, and with his advise, he ( my brother ) had done very well for the past 8 years. So here I am about 1 year later, and I to, have done well, but only due to his help.
I would like to get out from under his wing. Am wondering if there is anyone out there that can put in their 2 cents worth. I am completely open to ideas or advice, pro or con.
I’d suggest getting a ground-level education in investing before making any dramatic changes to your portfolio. I’d start with a book or two on the topic. Some of the ones I’d recommend would include:
The Bogleheads’ Guide to Investing , The Investor’s Manifesto , The New Coffeehouse Investor , or my latest, Investing Made Simple .
They’re each pretty easily readable while containing good information.
Hope that helps. - Mike
Bienvenido
Hola. I'm Mike Piper, the author of this blog. I'm a CPA and the author of several personal finance books. The point of this blog is to show that investing doesn't have to be complicated.
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Motley Fool Newsletters
The Motley Fool Website
Newsletter Review Score: 65/100
There are several “premium services” available on Motley Fool for you to subscribe to. I decided to try out two that are on different sides of the spectrum. The “Income Investor” newsletter and the “Hidden Gems” newsletter. I have belonged to both of these services for a few months now (I bought the year subscription) and I have to admit… I wish I bought it monthly, so I could have cancelled by now. Let me describe how the information is, in these two paid services.
First, the “Income Investor” newsletter. This one is designed for people who want to own some stable stocks, and basically do very little trading. Frankly, after getting the information (which is only one update per month), I felt like I already knew everything they were saying. They give you their portfolio of “5 buy now stocks” and about 20 other “buy” stocks, which they recommend that you add to your portfolio as you can afford to.
The problem with the “Income investor” is that there is no reason to join for more than 1 month. You get the 5 stocks, which are no surprise… SO, JNJ, PEP, WM, and DEO. Whoopee… after you get those 5 obvious blue chips, you can cancel. I felt so stupid for buying the entire year. Yes, you do get an occasional “intent to buy or sell” on something new, but the bulk of this whole service is about owning those 5 stocks. I see no reason to subscribe to this service, with such lame information.
Second, the “Hidden Gems” newsletter . I joined this one because it focuses on small cap stocks which potentially can be very profitable, and require frequent alerts in the newsletter to make sure you are buying and selling at the right times. Or so I thought…
The problem with the “Hidden Gems” newsletter is that practically all of the stocks they pick LOSE money. I kid you not. They had one “winner” which was Boston Beer. They also had FOSSIL. But they had another 30 stocks that were BIG LOSERS. If I had followed their portfolio as they recommend you do, I would have been down, huge. Here is another problem… you don’t get fast enough info. Again, the updates are few and far between… 2 per month or so. There is no way that you can make consistent money on small cap stocks with such infrequent updates to follow. You are getting beat to the punch on most of the plays here.
Based on the reasons I state above, on both the “Income Investor” and the “Hidden Gems” newsletters from Motley Fool, I can not recommend subscribing to them. There are much better services on the market, with more frequent updates and information that can be much more profitable.
Bang for your Buck
I feel the fools were more on the ball in the 90′s when they were giving free advice. I did quite well with several of their recommendations. Now it seems they are making tons with the subscription fees and their advice often isn’t worth the fees. They also keep creating more subscriptions all the time, ‘promising’ incredible returns. I did subscribe to their Stock Advisor two years ago and did well with some of their recommendations. But there were also a few that were total losses. The ‘overall’ returns they show are unreasonable for most investors because it is not practical to hold all the stocks that make up their virtual portfolios. Choose their ‘wrong’ recommendations, and you could end up being very sorry.
Matt Broedell says:
Value of Information
Timeliness of Information
Exclusivity of Information
Bang for your Buck
the Hidden Gems service is great if you want to lose money. It literally gives you so many stocks to choose from, you could never buy them all… and like 3 out of 30 make money. So, unless you happened to get lucky following the 3 they picked which profited, you got KILLED following their picks. Terrible service and a total waste of money.
Evaluating The Motley Fool Portfolios
The Motley Fool has become one of the most popular online forums and investment oriented web sites for individual investors. At least part of this popularity has resulted from strong performance of a Motley Fool real money portfolio discussed on their web site and in their books. "How the Fool Beats Wall Street's Wise Men and How You Can Too" is the subtitle of The Motley Fool Investment Guide .
Performance evaluation can be complicated and conclusions are often subject to debate. In marketing and evaluating their own performance, fund managers and sponsors have a tendency to focus on successful funds and periods of outperformance, while ignoring or underemphasizing previously unsuccessful funds and periods of underperformance. As a result, many performance claims are subject to survivorship bias . For this and other reasons, it is prudent and often illuminating to independently evaluate performance or seek unbiased interpretations of performance.
It is important to note that The Motley Fool has been in existence for approximately five years and the longest track record for any of the Motley Fool real-money portfolios is less than five years. Experts generally agree that longer track records are required to determine whether outperformance or underperformance can be attributed to skill as opposed to luck. In fact, Peter Bernstein states the following in Measuring Sticks in Worth Magazine (September 97). "Results over short periods of time, even those as long as two or three years, can be meaningless. Luck counts much more than skill in the short run."
In an attempt to objectively evaluate the past performance of Motley Fool "real-money" portfolios, Investor Home has gathered a substantial amount of information on current and past Motley Fool portfolios. The following tables are not complete and should not be considered comprehensive. (See references below ) . However, the following tables contain relevant information that investors can consider in evaluating the performance of Motley Fool portfolios through 1998. See The Motley Fool web site for current information on the current portfolios. All of the following information about the portfolios originates from information found in America Online Forums or web sites maintained by The Motley Fool or from information provided by Motley Fool staff.
Table 1 (as of 12/31/98)
Motley Fool Real-Money Portfolio Summary
As of 12/30/98 (the Boring portfolio is no longer updated daily by the Motley Fool)
Red indicates underperformance versus the S&P 500. Green indicates outperformance versus the S&P 500.
Table 1 includes information on seven real-money portfolios that have been publicly documented by The Motley Fool. Three of the portfolios began with investments of $50,000 while the remaining four portfolios have had investments of less than $50,000 combined. Tables 2 includes annual and historical return information on the two remaining $50,000 funds, both of which have existed for more than two and a half years.
The Motley Fool Investment Guide states that The Motley Fool originally began as a newsletter. Curiously though, the book fails to mention the fact that a real-money portfolio accompanied the newsletter. Several years ago, the "first Motley Fool Investment Portfolio" was mentioned on a web page (see reference below ), but apparently that web page no longer exists on the current web site. That fund underperformed and was closed in the summer of 1994 prior to the introduction of the second (or "online") portfolio.
The "Running With the Market" portfolio was apparently evaluated regularly before being closed in early 1996. (See Cherry-Picking for information about survivorship bias, creation bias, and other performance issues.) The "Boring Portfolio" was started in January 1996 and was evaluated daily through September 1998. However, according to The Motley Fool the fund has new managers as of October 1, 1998. The Drip Portfolio began in July 1997, but at less than 1% of the value of the second Motley Fool Portfolio, it is insignificant. The "Cash King" Portfolio (now called the "Rule Maker Portfolio") began in February of 1998 and is performing well thus far. The Foolish Four Portfolio became a real money portfolio with an initial investment of $4,000 on 12/24/98. Prior to that it was tracked as a model portfolio (See also Dow Dogs and the Foolish Four ).
Through 1998, the second Motley Fool portfolio (now called the "Rule Breaker Portfolio") has had outstanding performance, but the Boring portfolio has significantly underperformed the market during its shorter lifetime. On an annualized basis, the second Motley Fool portfolio had returned approximately 69% versus approximately 28% for the S&P 500. The Boring Portfolio has returned roughly 10% per year annualized versus 28% for the S&P over the corresponding time period. The second Motley Fool portfolio was particularly strong through the second quarter of 1996 and in 1998 but also underperformed for four straight quarters from July 1996 through June 1997.
The second Motley Fool portfolio outperformed the market in its first few years thanks to $5,000 investments in America Online and Iomega that each yielded many times the initial investments. Iomega has since given back much of its gains, but America Online and a more recent investment in Amazon. com have continued to yield excellent returns for the portfolio. America Online and Amazon. com were the best performing stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ in 1998 with spectacular gains of 585% and 966% respectively. Interestingly, The Motley Fool has significant relationships with both companies. On 4/7/97 Interactive Week reported that America Online had invested roughly $500,000 in seed money into The Motley Fool "in April 1995 and has an option to purchase an ownership stake of less than 20 percent through 2005" and the Fools market their books through Amazon. com.
The Motley Fool documents performance of their real-money portfolios in their America Online forum (Keyword Fool) and on their web site on a daily basis. Actual returns, net of commissions, along with comparisons to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes are included. Extensive commentary on the portfolios and the stocks in the portfolios are also made available on a regular basis.
The Motley Fool deserves a great deal of credit for openly supplying a vast amount of information on a timely basis. While many investment industry participants offer model portfolios or other forms of advice, few actually maintain real-money accounts in public view (in effect, putting their money where their mouths are). The Motley Fool reports include results net of costs and they have a policy of announcing trades before placing orders.
Included with the reports are comparisons to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes. However, prior to 12/31/98 the Motley Fools index comparisons apparently under represented the index returns. Reported index returns were apparently calculated by dividing the index beginning and ending value. This ignores dividend payments which must be reinvested in order to determine the appropriate index comparison. On a daily basis the difference is insignificant, but over periods of several quarters or years the difference can be significant. A Motley Fool report on 12/31/98 stated that the S&P 500 index returns would be reported with dividends for all their portfolios beginning on January 4, 1999. The NASDAQ comparisons apparently will continue to ignore dividend reinvestment and their portfolio archives prior to that date apparently continue to list the index returns without dividend reinvestment.
Additionally, if the goal is to offer viewers complete comparability with alternative investment opportunities such as mutual funds, there is other useful information that could be calculated and disclosed without much further effort. For example, in addition to the previously noted discrepancy in their index reporting, tax information (breaking down capital gains and dividends annually) and some kind of a risk measure (i. e. standard deviation) would be useful for investors.
The Motley Fool portfolios are apparently non-retirement accounts and are therefore subject to taxes. Supplying capital gains and dividend information would allow a more meaningful comparison with index funds. Index funds generally have a significant tax advantage that investors should evaluate. See The Vanguard Group 's Indexing's Tax Advantage. Investors duplicating the second Motley Fool portfolio in non-retirement accounts would have been subject to tax payments that would have significantly reduced their after tax returns. Specific tax payment amounts would have depended on individual circumstances.
Similarly, information about the risk of the portfolios would be useful. A portfolio that fluctuates less is considered superior to a portfolio that fluctuates more, all other factors being equal. For this reason, risk measures such as standard deviation are used to evaluate portfolios. (See Benchmarks & Performance Evaluation .)
The S&P 500 is a common benchmark used for comparison purposes but in many cases it is less relevant for comparison with portfolios that include small-cap stocks. The Motley Fool compares their portfolios with the S&P 500 as well as the NASDAQ index. The NASDAQ index is commonly used as a proxy for technology stocks, but for several reasons it is not an ideal benchmark. The common characteristic of stocks in the NASDAQ index is that they are listed on that exchange. While the majority of stocks in the index are small-cap stocks, the index also includes large-cap stocks that are also included in large-cap indexes. America Online and Iomega are two stocks in the second Motley Fool portfolio that moved from the NASDAQ to the NYSE. See The Vanguard Group 's Remember that the Standard & Poor's 500 is not "The Market" .
Benchmarks commonly used for comparing portfolios that include both large and small-cap stocks are the Russell 3000 and the Wilshire 5000. The Russell 2000 is commonly used as a benchmark for small-cap stocks. Portfolios selected based on factors such as growth and value can also be compared to specialized indexes of comparable stocks. Similarly, internet stocks can be compared to an index of internet stocks. The second Motley Fool portfolio could be viewed and evaluated as two separate portfolios. One component made up of the Foolish Four. which is best compared to the DJIA, and the other made up of other stocks which could be compared to an appropriate benchmark that accurately reflects the pool of securities.
The Performance Presentation Standards (PPS) of the Association for Investment Management and Research (AIMR ) represent a comprehensive method of reporting performance. The PPS are recognized in the investment community as a comprehensive set of standards that allows for accurate and comparable reporting of funds. The PPS include a defined set of mandatory requirements and disclosures. The following are some examples:
All real money accounts must be included in at least one composite. (A composite is made up of a set of individual portfolios or asset classes. The composite return is intended to be a single value that reflects the overall performance or "central tendency" of the set).
A complete list and description of each composite must be disclosed.
No linkage of simulated and model portfolios.
Exclusion of terminated portfolios from the composite for all periods after the last period they were in place, but inclusion for all periods to termination.
Use of external risk measures such as standard deviation is recommended.
Referencias
Motley Fool Portfolio #1 http://fool. web. aol. com/school/sch_02f. htm (accessed and printed 5/21/96) "The Fool's School: How To Invest What You Have: Between $15,000.00 and $50,000.00" Included the following: "THE INITIAL SIZE of our first Motley Fool Investment Portfolio was $15,000. That was back in the Dark Ages, when we were a print publication. We put $15,000 in about 15 different stocks and killed ourselves in paying commissions."
"Running With the Market" http://www. fool. com/foolport/1997/foolport970210.htm Included the following: "Despite the wildly un successful project we aired in 1995 called Running With the Market, a real-money portfolio that finished down more than 60% after less than six months, the company's reputation as a hip company run by savvy investors has not changed." http://208.206.41.244/game/archive/tpa%5F142.htm (accessed and printed 3/27/97) "The Motley Fool's Today's Pitch" (Pitch #142) Included the following: "Last week, the Running With the Market Portfolio closed out its Foolish run in the Motley Fool Hall of Portfolios. Some hard lessons were learned in its five-month run and just over 50% loss, but I daresay every Fool who participated in the RWTM folder (except Dave and Tom, *ouch*!) learned many lessons about investing. This week, MF Boring takes on the mantle of Foolish responsibility and accountability as he opens the MF Boring Portfolio. As the name implies, Greg's approach to investing is slow and steady, Foolishly cautious, and yet Foolishly aggressive at the same time." Fool Portfolio, 9/21/95: Money Lost, Market Beaten - Accessed from America Online. Included the following: "And the aim is to account for every single portfolio move that we make under the same brand today that we offered up to the nation yesterday and last year. Note that when Dan Running watches Read-Rite tumble, he answers for it. When MF DowMan sees a stock in his IFG Portfolio slip, he presents it. When MF Templar struggles through a tough week in the Neocontrarian folder, he speaks of it. Don't expect hidden brands anytime soon! We don't want to ever, popular as it may be, rename ourselves. We aren't looking for quick hits, relaunches, new brands, promotion that precedes performance, confused financial statements. " http://www. fool. com/foolport/1995/foolport951006.htm http://www. fool. com/eveningnews/1995/eveningnews951017.htm
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“The best Motley Fool investing idea since AOL and Amazon. com in the 1990s”
Welcome! If you are new to Stock Gumshoe, grab a free membership here and join us to get our free newsletter alerts with new teaser answers and debunkings. ¡Gracias! Not new? Please log in at top right of this page
That’s our pitch today — that the new “themed” technology investments being teased by the Motley Foolians are as good as David Gardner’s push for AOL and Amazon. com back in the days before the Motley Fool published their current Stock Advisor newsletter.
The ad letter actually comes in from a different Fool employee, Todd Etter, though it’s all about the ideas being pitched by the Gardner brothers in their flagship letter, and the stock ideas they’re holding above our heads (jump! Just a little higher! Only $49 now!) are all built around the basic idea that instead of people learning how to use confusing computers, the world is moving toward computers learning how to understand people.
Or, as David Gardner titles his “special report”: “Voice + Prediction + Gesture = $$$”
Incidentally, the Foolies have dramatically cut the price of Stock Advisor — at least in the email pitch I received, they’re down to $49 and the last pricing I had seen before that was, I think, $199 … I wonder whether they’re testing the strategy espoused by the Agoraplex newsletters and starting folks off with a low price to get them used to paying something, then pitch them on “upgrades” more aggressively to get them into the more expensive letters in the years to come. I guess we’ll start to find out as the next crops of teasers roll through. (The list price is still $199 on their website, FYI, so maybe they’re just testing out some sale prices.)
So what’s the big idea? Well, the title of the report pretty much says it all — the companies behind voice recognition, gesture recognition and big data (that’s what you use to predict behavior) are going to make us rich. Etter tells us that much of this advance came from video gams.
“… one thing I’ve learned from being a professional game maker and game player all these years is that a lot of real problems — in education, in medicine, and even in defense & security — were solved by innovations that first appeared in video games.
“Which is why, when I first heard about David’s newest investing idea, I knew right away that he was onto something big.
“Because I had already seen it in the video games my kids were playing.
“It just hadn’t dawned on me yet that it would be the perfect solution for so many of our daily aggravations. Or that it would be so easy to use, and work as well as it does….
“I also didn’t realize that scientists at M. I.T. were calling it ‘the most important new technology since the smart phone.’
“That major corporations like McDonald’s, Toyota, Microsoft, Intel, Samsung, GM, Sony, and Bloomingdale’s were scrambling to implement it.
“Or that major hospitals like Miami Children’s Hospital and the National Naval Medical Center were already relying on it to treat their patients.
“And I certainly didn’t know the 3 companies that David had selected for his newest investing strategy, or why his research made him so confident about them.”
So that’s the basic spiel … what, then, are our three companies? He teases them one at a time — the first one is the voice recognition pick:
“It all starts with the power of your voice….
“… if you’re like my wife and me, the solution you’ve already fallen in love with is “Siri”…
“That’s the name of the voice recognition program on Apple’s new iPhones. (You’ve probably seen Samuel Jackson and Martin Scorsese using it on TV.) …
“But here’s the really interesting thing… Someone else gets a fat cut of the profit from every single one of those iPhones! And it’s a company very few investors have ever heard of…
“See, the Siri voice recognition program wasn’t invented by Steve Jobs. Or by anyone else at Apple.
“And even though Google and Microsoft are using the same program in 540 million other devices, neither of them invented it either….
“… the little company that does control the key patents for what scientists like Steve Rizzo at the University of Southern California are calling ‘the holy grail to technology’… can sell it to whomever they please….
“…stocks like this one, which benefit from the success of Apple and the other technology giants — but require a bit more savvy to discover — make such good investments.”
Now, tying your stock idea to Apple (AAPL) has been less of a successful pitch in recent weeks … but we’ll let that pass (and I’m still a holder of Apple stock and think it has gotten ridiculously cheap, if you’re wondering which side of that fence I stand on).
More clues about this first pick? But of course …
“According to Andrew Rosenberg, a computer science professor at Queens College in New York, the company that controls this voice recognition technology is ‘the equivalent of Microsoft, Google, or Amazon in a very niche technological space.’
“And with 43 different strategic acquisitions over the past six years, and a war chest of 2,016 patents, it’s easy to see why he’s comfortable making such a provocative comparison…
& # 8220; Bloomberg BusinessWeek took things even further. Calling this CEO ‘every bit as powerful as Steve Jobs.'”
Irregulars Quick Take Paid members get a quick summary of the stocks teased and our thoughts here. Join as a Stock Gumshoe Irregular today (already a member? log in at top right)
OK, so those are accurage quotes and that’s real information, albeit not a full picture, but it ignores my favorite quote from that same Bloomberg Businessweek article: Dave Grannan, CEO of Vlingo, was quoted as saying that “Competing with Nuance is like having a venereal disease that’s in remission.”
And yes, this first teased pick is the dominant voice recognition technology company, Nuance Communications (NUAN). Which, perhaps not surprisingly, bought Vlingo about six months after that quote.
Nuance does own the technology that helps to power Siri, we’re told (I don’t think Apple has officially confirmed that still, but it’s widely believed that Nuance is involved — and it’s hard to imagine that they wouldn’t be), and they have indeed been extremely acquisitive over the years in adding new technologies and patent portfolios to their quiver … and they are not, frankly, all that expensive if the analysts are estimating well. The company has finally started to generate some real revenue and profit growth over the past year, growth that analysts believe is sustainable, and while it’s probably wise to be a bit skeptical of a company that has been so acquisitive and such a “next year” story for several years now, there is a growing trend toward voice recognition from more and more of your gadgets, from your TV remote to your car.
Of course, Nuance, despite being quite aggressive in the courts, does not own the whole idea of interfacing with machines via voice — and there are projects at most of the big software and mobile companies to develop better voice controls, too, including from Microsoft and Google. So we can’t necessarily draw our straight line on the graph and say that Nuance is going to own the “Siri” of the future … but you can definitely argue that if anyone’s going to win that race, Nuance has the pole position.
They’ve gotten consistently better at turning sales into free cash flow in recent years, and in generating more cash flow than earnings, so that’s a good indication that the business is “real” and has some staying power — though they also turn a lot of that cash into investments in acquiring little bolt-on companies, and they’re pretty free with the stock grants to management. There is good insider ownership, and a couple of large institutional shareholders, but there has not been any insider buying in the recent past. Right now they’re trading for 12X the expected earnings for this coming year (their fiscal year ends in September, but we haven’t seen December quarter numbers for NUAN yet so that’s really just the forward estimated PE). That’s coupled with earnings growth that is expected to be about 10% in 2017, and projections that they can grow earnings by better than 15% a year going out into the future … so if those numbers work out as the analysts expect NUAN is certainly worth buying here — that’s a low PEG ratio and a stock with a good “theme” story behind it, and they have done a little bit better than analyst estimates over the past three quarters.
Of course, that depends on NUAN continuing to lead this technology and getting more clients and more installations, leading to more revenue — much of their revenue in the past has come from older technologies and businesses, particularly stuff like medical dictation, so there’s plenty of risk that as voice integration becomes mainstream it might take away some of the barriers to entry for other companies. Nuance did recently win Hyundai’s business in developing a new voice system for their next generation of vehicles, and they’ve had similar systems in other cars for a while, but we don’t really know how much revenue that turns into in the future. They also own the only real brand in the voice recognition space, Dragon, but I don’t know whether that brand really means anything just yet.
So … mercurial CEO that people love to hate, lots of patent lawsuits, rumors of an attempted takeover by Apple about a year and a half ago, and lots of dreams about the future of talking to your TV or your car in plain language, and you can see why Nuance gets a lot of press. Beneath that chatter, however, is a company that has managed to scare off or acquire most of its small rivals, and that has pretty quietly become reasonably priced … the growth for this current year isn’t dramatic, but at a PE of 11 or 12 you don’t necessarily need dramatic growth. The shares have come down a bit this year and there isn’t any particular momentum to either the earnings growth or the stock price, but it is in a potentially growing industry and it’s not expensive. I don’t own the shares and never have, but as it dips down here I’m starting to think that maybe it’s worth taking a deeper look.
How about the second idea pitched by the Fool?
“… it’s time to meet our second hidden Silicon Valley power player.
“And find out how Apple got a leg up on Microsoft when Steve Jobs went to seek out this visionary CEO’s advice about prediction software.
“We’ll also discover why Jobs trusted this man as a mentor… literally driving to his house at one point to sit on the floor at his feet.
“And finally, we’ll see why 134 of the world’s 200 biggest corporations have trusted their future to this tiny company’s one-of-a-kind technology solution.
“Remember, the key is prediction. Computers can’t really think like we do, but with this cutting edge software, they can learn….
“… when Wal-Mart came looking for an ‘impossible’ 60% bump to its sky-high profit margins, this company used its prediction software to show them a new way to sell popular items like Strawberry Pop-Tarts… seven times faster!”
¿Seriamente? Wal-Mart’s profit margins are only sky high if you compare them to Amazon’s. I can’t think of many large companies that have smaller profit margins, WMT’s overall margin is right around 3.5% and not high even when compared with peers like Target (4.2%).
OK, they’re high compared to grocery stores, which often have profit margins below 1%, so we’ll accept the pop tart reference … but grudgingly.
“[David Gardner] went on to say that it’s widely known among technology insiders that this company simply makes this software better than anyone else does.
“(Even the mainstream media is starting to catch on… For example, CNBC’s Jim Cramer says this ‘scrappy company’ has ‘a major edge on the competition,’ and admits that the way it’s been overlooked by Wall Street insiders is ‘kind of ridiculous.’)”
So … hoodat? Well, the two possibilities are both stocks that have been recommended by the Motley Fool, Tibco Software and Teradata … and both have been mentioned positively by Jim Cramer over the past year as well, but the fact that we’re talking primarily about software to understand this predictive data (rather than systems to store and organize it — Teradata is a data warehouser, Tibco a software company) leans toward Tibco, as do the specific quotes about being “scrappy” from Cramer. So I’m pretty sure they’re teasing Tibco Software here, symbol TIBX (though Teradata was specifically involved with those Wal-Mart pop tart epiphanies, back when it was a division of NCR … the story was that Wal-Mart used data mining to discover that people stock up on pop-tarts after a hurricane and therefore increased pop tart sales dramatically by stocking heavily into predicted hurricane areas. I don’t know if Tibco was working with Walmart at the time or not.)
And yes, that story about Steve Jobs sitting on the floor in front of the CEO is true, that was way back when Jobs had been fired from Apple and was starting fresh and wanted some guidance from Vivek Ranadive. who hadn’t yet started Tibco but was well respected for building and selling technology.
Tibco is a company I’ve been intending to take more of a look at as they’ve seen their share price drop — Ranadive is somewhat of a “big data” evangelist and he has built a business data integration company that is platform agnostic, with an incredible capacity to process and interpret reams of data. That may be important because many of the competitors work primarily or only with their own data systems, whether that’s Oracle or Salesforce. com or IBM. They have thousands of customers and have had a steadily growing business and slowly improving margins for several years now, but over the last year or so they’ve also seen earnings growth decelerate and, in the last quarter, a bad miss that brought the shares down sharply.
I don’t know whether or not TIBX will do better than expected over the next couple quarters, but their reduced guidance and disappointing numbers last time around still clearly have investors a bit nervous — analyst estimates have come down over the last couple months for both the current year and for next year, so we’re dealing with a very profitable company in what should be a growing business, but one that’s either facing increased competition or simply having internal trouble in managing their sales (they say it’s the latter).
I’m intrigued by this one, I’ll have to dig deeper and see if I can get comfortable with the reduced expectations — Tibco is not particularly cheap, they have big competitors and they’ve grown to a substantial size (about $4 billion market cap) now, and investors are wary … but they do have a good, high margin business and a recurring customer base, a strong toehold in the “big data” trend, and a strong leader, so the story is nice and solid … it’s just a question of whether we can be confident about the size of future revenues.
“The last piece of the puzzle is now ‘at hand.’ Silicon Valley types call it gesture control.
“And like I said before, if you have kids, you might have seen crude versions of this device before… in their video games.
“I doubt I need to explain to you why it’s a necessary complement to voice control — maybe even an improvement on it. And why it blows all of the old “user interface technologies” out of the water.
“Of course, there are bound to be skeptics. Remember the people who said they’d never use a computer mouse?
“But gesture control is just the next logical step after the mouse and the touch screen. As Dr. Mark Bolas at the University of Southern California points out, ‘when using a computer today, we think of our bodies as a fingertip or at most two fingertips. But humans evolved to communicate with their whole bodies.’…
“David’s investing strategy for this third and last part of his technology “triple play” didn’t lead him to a small, start-up type company.
“Instead, it led him to one of the most powerful corporations in the world.
“See, he believes they’re the only company with the R&D capabilities to refine this technology further — they’ve already developed a next-generation gesture control program that allows you not only to wave, swipe, and pinch your commands for a built-in camera, but also to use any surface in your house, including your couch cushion, your coffee table, and even the water in your drinking glass as a virtual touch screen.”
OK, so this one’s nice and easy, as several folks have noted — that’s Disney (DIS), which was similarly touted by the Fool in their “Television 2.0: The War for Your Living Room” teaser pitch a few months ago. The cool new remote control and technology stuff is part of their Disney Research arm, including several different touch - and gesture-oriented research projects … and maybe some of them will eventually migrate into your TV. But don’t worry, for now the cost of goods on the buffet table of the Disney Wonder cruise ship is going to be more meaningful for the bottom line than are these various R&D projects.
Disney is a technology company to some degree, of course, but their core skills are storytelling and merchandizing … and they do it better than anyone else. This is a stock that I’ve often intended to nibble at, but my timing has been bad and I’ve never actually followed through and bought shares — I think they’re in a tremendous position competitively with their Pixar, Lucas Films, Marvel and other creative franchises, and as importantly with their ownership of ESPN and it’s massive leverage over live sports coverage, but every time I sniff around the shares I walk away thinking, “eh, maybe I can get it just a little bit cheaper”. Last time was a couple months ago when they made the deal to buy the Star Wars franchise and bring out the next Star Wars film, the stock dropped a couple dollars, I and I thought to myself, “just a bit more and then I’ll buy.” But no dice, the stock bounced right back up.
Disney is not a particularly expensive stock, but it is a mega cap company with a market capitalization around $90 billion so you have to temper your growth expectations. If they can continue putting up growth numbers in excess of 10% a year, this is going to be a great investment even if you buy it here near the 52-week highs … but the skinflint in me, for some reason, keeps hoping that the flu epidemic will cut the gate proceeds at Disney World, or they release another awful and expensive film like John Carter, and then I’ll be able to jump on a slightly better price. I should probably just buy five shares a week and forget trying to pick a bargain, but where’s the fun in that?
So those are the three picks from Dave Gardner for this new revolution — I think it’s probably a stretch to buy Disney based on haptics and gestures, and there are plenty of other plays in data integration and “big data” to go along with Tibco, but they’re all reasonably priced firms with real profits and at least some potential to grow into new businesses as human-computer interaction continues to evolve. Got a favorite from this bunch or elsewhere in the field? Let us know with a comment below.
That gesture technology certainly is interesting. In the Todd Etter Motley Fool note, he mentions ‘MIT scientists calling it the most important new technology since the smart phone’. I did a search on this and found the company, Leap Motion. Unfortunately this company is not public. Here is the demo and more interesting, is the comments that follow. http://www. technologyreview. com/view/428350/the-most-important-new-technology-since-the-smart-phone-arrives-december-2012/ In the same Todd Etter note is a reference to Forbes magazine calling it ‘the most significant game changer in retail this decade’. Forbes likes Microsoft Kinect. http://www. forbes. com/sites/ciocentral/2012/06/06/why-retailers-need-to-care-about-microsofts-kinect/
I did the same research when I originally received the Fool emails. I found Leap Motion and was excited to learn more about. I would definitely invest in them if I could. There was also another privately held company that was mentioned in their newsletter, can’t think of it right now though.
I ended up buying SPLK.
Hi Pockets says:
I joined the Fools about 3 months ago because of a teaser about 3D, paying $199 for a two year subscription. My big problem is that the stocks they recommend are usually over $50.00, which is too much for me If I want to be diversified. Also, the research available through ScotTrade usually does not rate the stocks as good buys for one reason or another (at that point in time).
Of course, the Fool thesis is to buy stocks that have great upside potential over the long haul. At my age I have to be interested in mid-term potential — maybe one to two years.
A smaller problem is that I’m spammed to death. I even get teasers from the Fool group in the U. K.
I’m still working on exploring their website. Their graphing capabilities leave a LOT to be desired.
All in all, I’m relatively happy with their service. Their commentary pages (“What Members are Saying About. “) often points out things that I would not have thought about. And, best of all, joining them led me to joining Stock Gumshoe. So it wasn’t a bad investment. >)
Ira Cotton says:
What difference does the stock price make in a diversification plan? You don’t have to buy stock in 100 lot increments. Buy just 5 or 10 shares if that’s all you can afford.
Wayne Hatcher says:
No, sorry Mike. I spent 33 years in the Brewing industry involved in everything from production to safety/security. Before that I worked in mechanical construction during the 70s. That was another time when the economy tanked into recession due to high inflation causing massive layoffs in my field. I am just glad that hard times don’t stop beer drinkers because there have been several since. Funny how this stuff runs in cycles depending on political and socioeconomic policies. But sure as the sun comes up it’s gonna happen sooner or later. Retired now and just watching the world go ape AGAIN.
Alan Harris says:
Hi Pockets Sure 100 @ 20 is the same $2k as a 1000 @ $2. But the replies your getting are not completely answering what I think youre saying…. and being skint, Im sympathetic. The smaller the amount you invest magnifies the trading costs (inc your Fool subscription) ratio of your return on capital employed. We spoke before on a different thread. If you can only invest a small (ish) amount, to begin with its better to spread that around just 5 stocks that you can get to know intimately. That way you wont need Fool to tempt you every 10mins nor pay multiple subscriptions. You can trade those few stocks’ movements 50 times a day if you like, rather than trying to keep up with the movements of 50 different stocks. And by buying bigger chunks, your returns ratio will be less depleated by trading/education costs.
Terrence Powell says:
@ Alan Harris, Could you give an example of how you would execute what you said about “trading movements… times a day”? For the most part I think I’ve got it, but I would benefit greatly from a solid example laid out. Gracias
Alan Harris says:
Sorry Ive only just seen this. What I meant was, If you like the buzz of trading rather than buy and sit on it for months, you can short term/day trade trade any stock 5 times a day if you like. The problem (apart fom early heart problems) is that your gains are usually tiny, so you need to buy big so that small gains cover trading costs. If you are going to short term trade, you really need to know the company inside out or you are just gambling. Another reason to keep it down to 5 stocks is, if youre betting $2-3k+ lots x 5 that 15k in play. Happy for you if got more than that much as risk capital you can ‘afford’ to lose.
@David – Huge mistake if I understand what you are saying correctly. If you can only afford to invest a fixed amount per month join one of the online firms that let you buy incremental shares (like sharebuilder. com). The only reason the share of a stock price should matter is because of the price you are paying relative to fundamentals like P/E, NEVER because I can afford two of this stock at $50, but only one share of another at $100.
Once I started building up my account, I made it a rule to never buy less than $2000 worth of any company that held my interest. Based on $10 transaction fees, that puts the ‘friction’ of losses at 0.5%. OK?
June Dwyer says:
Rhinodaddy: What you said had a point – about never buying less than $2000 for a 9.95 fee for example on sharebuilder. Not everyone has $2000 to throw in at one time, though. I had my purchase on auto for a while on sharebuilder but even then it was $4.00 a transaction (waaaay too much), so now I stick to transfer agents like computershare and shareowneronline now. Fees depend on the company you are buying. For example, BKE charges more than $1 per transaction and CTL charges nothing. Unless of course the company is not serviced by one of these transfer agents – then go to etrade and spend that $10.
I’m long Nuance Communications. There’s a transcript on Seeking Alpha where Nuance explain their technology:
In that transcript the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (not ideal re governance IMO) says:
“we believe that our technology increasingly provides a source of differentiation for us”
If you can figure out how, please post.
Anyway I think they’d say they’ve moved on from voice recognition to natural language understanding (NLU). The way they develop NLU is to take an area like medical (I think, or maybe smaller like oncology), get experts to cook up some rules, then apply learning algorithms to a large data set.
The data sets are some mixture of text and voice. Once a company has the general know-how, the size and quality of the data set determines how good the NLU gets. If it was easy to do, Apple would have done their own (although there’s more to a software personal assistant than just NLU).
Also they have a joint research program with IBM, and Nuance’s latest acquisition does software personal assistants.
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Robert Hard says:
Regarding Apple, I agree that it’s an excellent company with great products selling at a very low PE for a company with reasonable growth prospects. (I say “reasonable” rather than “fanatastic” because their sales are already so huge). Does that make them a good investment? Not necessarily. I’m thinking of IBM in the 1970s. It was near the top of all companies in terms of market cap, it dominated its industry, it had a huge cash hoard (a giant stock portfolio they had accumulated with cash they didn’t know what else to do with) –and a stock price that languished for years despite strong earnings. The problem was not the company. It was the investment community. Everyone and his brother already owned it–so where was the new money (and really big money) going to come from to propel this mega-cap higher? Like any other product on the market, when everyone has bought it, there is no place for price to go but down. Apple was the single biggest holding for any number of hedge funds in 2011, and its fall was the single biggest reason that the index crushed the hedgies in 2012. Maybe with that selling (I haven’t actually tottted up the volume figures, which could be revealing) there is again room in poprtfolios for additonal Apple purchases. But that, i believe, is the problem you’re dealing with: Excessively broad holding, and nothing whatever to do with the Iphone 5 or any other product. And one more thing: i can’t think of an example of tech company that oonce had a high PE, but then lost it, and then got it back. Once that PE falls to the ground (i. e. 8 to 12), it tends to stay there for decades. If anyone knows some counter-examples, please post.
John Kreamer says:
Apple has an advantage in its apps/iTunes store over android devices and that’s about it. Samsung Galaxy products are a year ahead of the iPhone. You hardly hear about Apple’s computers anymore. The iPad is also one of their leading products but the competitive advantage is not what it used to be. Slowly people are moving towards other smart phone manufacturers as their phones have more customer oriented features when compared to Apple’s. Apple refuses, to date, to make discounted iPhones and subsequently is losing out to the developing country markets. Their CEO had to travel to China in effort to get China Mobile to sell their phones which speaks volumes as in the past people were begging to sell Apple products. I don’t see why people think Apple will rebound. To me the writing is on the wall that they will go the way of Microsoft as a company with a lot of cash but flat stock prices. I live in Asia where I used to see everybody with an iPhone, now I see an ever increasing number of Apple’s competitors phones being used. RIM may also take away market share with its new phone and os.
China Mobile are unofficially selling iPhones, including 5, they are available in all China Mobile shops, not sure where they are sourcing the phones but despite CM not having 4g or even 3g thats iPhone compatible (iPhone only connect to CM with Edge) most users in China still prefer to use an iPhone with CM than with Unicom due to better national coverage and international roaming benefits. Whilst Apple could increase sales with CM with an official tie up, the increase would not be as great as people outside China believe since a good level of sales already exists.
Today, the Fools are teasing with the dominant data storage players? I think that they’ve done this before with the whole secret “Columbia River” buildings which of course are located in Quincy, WA.
I joined the Fools way back in the beginning and then left after a couple of years. Later joined for a year and then kicked myself for doing it. The Fools started by behaving like Gumshoe, then they became what they preached against. I get tired of the sales pitches.
I live in Asia and I too see the decline in iPhone users while travelliing on the buses and subway. My friend’s daughter even said nobody wants an iPhone cos it’s not cool anymore and it’s only used by the older folks. Without Steve Jobs around, Apple has begun to lose its cool factor. Nobody will make you wanna buy a product like Steve does. He’s a natural. Every other CEO just tries to hard. Anyway when Apple loses their cool factor and doesn’t keep up with their competitors new features
“OK, they’re high compared to grocery stores, which often have profit margins below 1%, so we’ll accept the pop tart reference … but grudgingly.”
Grocery stores have a 1% margin on inventory; however, they turn their inventory over once a month. Thus, they have a 12% annual profit margin. If Wal Mart’s 3.5% margin is on inventory, the question then becomes, how many times per year does Wal-Mart turn over its inventory. You would need to know that before judging its profit margin.
I highly recommend UNXL (Uniboss touch screen) and PAMT (parmetric sound technology). Both have very low float and no debt. Even at these prices, they still have more rooms for upside. UNXL will be announcing their ecosystem and joint venture partners very, very soon and they’ll also announce first shipment of products in April. Do your DD and buy the dips.
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Richard Hewitt says:
The best example of a tech company going from high PE to low and back to high would probably be Apple. They were in penny stock range after their original glory days and before their recent success.
SCOTT MURRAY says:
True. If you think stocks are expensive based on the price of a share alone, without reference to other factors (such as earnings), you simply don’t know enough to invest in stocks. You are the kind of investor who makes stock-trading profitable for everyone else, because they take your money. If you could not afford one share of GOOG when it was selling for $200, save your hard-earned cash for hard times… don’t risk it on the market.
Joe Gilson says:
Blah blah blah Fool. Buy Disney? It’s ONLY one of the greatest money generating businesses on the PLANET! Who doesn’t love Disney? Who doesn’t love ESPN? Who does not in some way, shape or form, spend money toward the Disney Co. They make money even when they LOSE on stupid movies like The Lone Ranger. Even if somebody died on one of their park rides, stock may tumble a bit…BUT when investors forget, like a day or two later, it will go back up. This is the best you got, Motley Fool? Come on. Everybody wants to own shares of Disney. Tell me something WE don’t know.
Whats your take on the diffrence in the specific companies mentioned in this article, http://upsetreviews. com/2012/10/what-are-the-googles-television-2-0-stocks-motley-fools-nattering-in-their-2-2-trillion-war-for-your-living-room-ad/ . as compaired to your interpretations of the Motley Fool projections of the three companies they allude to?
One theory that I’ve read is that retail investors were hoping that after Icahn became involved, he would engineer a sale, possibly to Apple. When he shot that down and indicated that he was in Nuance for the long run, the price dropped.
There has also been some notice recently of the ridiculous compensation paid to upper management, which has eaten up a large chuck of the firm’s profitability (there were a couple of articles on seekingalpha). Some people speculate that next year, when Icahn is no longer limited to 20% of the outstanding shares due to an agreement he made with management, he will increase his holdings and either change the compensation scheme or oust upper management entirely. We’ll see.
I’ve been following Nuance since this article came out and finally bought some, first when the price dipped to around $15.75 and then added more in the low $13s.
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Motley Fool’s Foolish Advice
I don’t believe Motley Fool is any worse than others who convey the impression they have found a way to “beat the markets.” My problem with them is they are more effective. They have built an extremely successful website, fool. com. Recently, they branched out into the fund management business. Among the funds they offer is the Motley Fool Great America Fund (TMFGX). A reader sent me a pitch for the fund. It is well written and very persuasive. Let me give you the other side of the story.
According to the sales piece, Tom Gardner and his brother David started The Motley Fool in their parent’s garage in 1993. I applaud their entrepreneurship and their ensuing success.
They formed the Great America Fund because they “believe in America.” Here’s their investing methodology: They “scour the market for small-and mid-cap American companies.” They only invest in companies they believe in and “truly understand”. Here’s their closer: “When you invest with us at Motley Fool Funds, you are investing in partnership with a small, dedicated team of stock analysts and a value-obsessed manager whose sole mission in life is to dig up the market's hidden opportunities.”
Before you reach for your checkbook, here are some facts to consider:
According to the sales presentation, as of August 31, 2012, the fund had annualized returns of 10.60 percent since its inception on November 1, 2010, barely outperforming its benchmark return of 10.31 percent. However, as of the same date, its one-year total return is 10.90 percent, significantly underperforming its benchmark of 13.30 percent.
Do you believe William Mann III, the fund manager of this fund, is at the top of his game and vastly superior to the most brilliant managers running much larger, comparable funds? According to a blog by Jay Franklin. who analyzed a recent report issued by Standard & Poors, for the five-year period ending December 31, 2011, 86 percent of mid-cap domestic equity funds were outperformed by their benchmark index.
According to Yahoo Finance, the fund has a net expense ratio of 1.35 percent. The American Association of Individual Investors notes that a common problem with mutual funds with low assets under management is they will have high expenses relative to the amount of assets they manage.
Keep in mind that the Great American Fund has total assets under management of only $62.35 million, according to Yahoo Finance. Vanguard’s Mid-Cap Index fund (VIMSX) has a much lower expense ratio of only 0.24 percent. It has net assets of $30.37 billion. According to Yahoo Finance, for the period ending August 30, 2012, the 10-year return is 9.06 percent, the five-year return is 1.89 percent, the three-year return is 15.33 percent, and one-year return is 11.51 percent.
The track record of Motley Fool gives little comfort. I applaud it for candidly disclosing on its web page that a number of its investing strategies have been discontinued. It closed its Running with the Market Portfolio after it lost over 60 percent of its value. It also discontinued its Retiree Portfolios, Boring Portfolio (which gained 7.7 percent during the tenure of its portfolio manager, versus 63.6 percent for the S&P 500), Harry Jones portfolio, Foolish Four Portfolio (after it ran tests of the Dow-dividend strategies which turned out to be “not encouraging”), and Workshop Portfolio (due to a dispute with Value Line).
You could conclude that Motley Fool has been experimenting with various strategies for beating the market. So far, the secret sauce has eluded them and everyone else engaged in the same activity.
The hypocrisy of Motley Fool is stunning. It purports to be a strong advocate of index-based investing, which it considers to be “an important step in the ladder to successful investing”. In fact, it correctly notes that for many investors, index investing can be their sole strategy.
Yet, with its actively managed funds, it tells investors it has the ability to beat the markets. Based on its own track record, its inconsistent positions on intelligent investing, and overwhelming academic data, I can only reach this conclusion: This is foolish advice.
The views set forth in this blog are the opinions of the author alone and may not represent the views of any firm or entity with whom he is affiliated. The data, information, and content on this blog are for information, education, and non-commercial purposes only. Returns from index funds do not represent the performance of any investment advisory firm. The information on this blog does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice and is limited to the dissemination of opinions on investing. No reader should construe these opinions as an offer of advisory services. Readers who require investment advice should retain the services of a competent investment professional. The information on this blog is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities or class of securities mentioned herein. Furthermore, the information on this blog should not be construed as an offer of advisory services. Please note that the author does not recommend specific securities nor is he responsible for comments made by persons posting on this blog.
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It should be known that using a signal provider will not guarantee any profit. Trading binary options will remain a risky financial investment. These signals will only help investors make decisions on trades and may also help determine when a trade should be conducted, but they will not guarantee a return on any particular investment.
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The Motley Fool's Record Doesn't Bode Well for Its Funds
Last Updated Mar 4, 2011 5:17 PM EST
As we noted yesterday, the financial Web site the Motley Fool dispenses some good advice, but fails to back that up when creating their own mutual funds. They're demonstrating that like most of Wall Street and the financial media, their interests come before yours.
About a decade ago, the Web site used to maintain real money model portfolios. This was pretty distinguishing at the time, as this meant their strategies were in the public's full view. Unlike some money managers and newsletter publishers who require a "just trust me" approach, the Motley Fool was subject to open scorn for underperforming.
At the end of February 2003, the brothers announced that they were discontinuing publication of their real money model portfolios. Why would the Motley Fool choose to get rid of their portfolios? According to their Web site, the Motley Fool concluded that the real-money aspect of their portfolios had gotten in the way of their educational function.
Given the track record of their portfolios, a cynic would suggest another answer. Being skeptical of all claims of ability to beat the market, we went to our trusty videotape to check the performance record of the Foolish strategies. According to the calculations of the Hulbert Financial Digest . the Motley Fool's portfolios produced a 1.3 percent annualized return over the six-year period that Hulbert tracked their performance. Over the same period, the Wilshire 5000 (a broad market index) produced an annualized return of 3.4 percent. This is a comparable result to the findings of numerous studies on actively managed mutual funds -- they underperform by approximately 1.5 percent per year on a pre-tax basis.
It's also important to note that Hulbert's data includes several portfolios that the Fool used to maintain but were discontinued along the way. Thus, there's none of the usual survivorship bias in the data. Obviously, the Fools had been fooled into believing that they had found strategies that were likely to produce above market returns. One last note of interest. The man responsible for running these portfolios was William Mann, who currently runs the Motley Fool funds we examined yesterday.*
On the surface it appears that the Fools have failed to learn from their past mistakes (engaging in insane behavior). There's also another explanation for such Foolish behavior. The Fools know that their funds aren't likely to outperform, but they're likely to generate profits for them because of the high expense ratios of the funds, the very type fees they have been lambasting for years.
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A while back I checked out The Motley Fool while doing some research on mutual funds. I found their educational content to be a great overview of what to look for and started exploring. While The Motley Fool has a lot of great content, I'm not entirely comfortable with their incessant up-selling.
They always so eager to tell me about some "insiders" stock of the day that they are sure is just about to explode tomorrow if only I will give them some of my valuable personal information. Is this a scam? Are they just using their legacy educational content to bait people into their premium services? Are their premium services even any good? The Motley Fool once had a fair amount of Internet street cred.
Are The Motley Fool's stock picks and services worth giving any mind share to or are they just another Jim Cramer loudly shouting ticker symbols to sell advertisements?
asked Feb 17 '11 at 6:19
I've had a MF Stock Advisor for 7 or 8 years now, and I've belong to Supernova for a couple of years. I also have money in one of their mutual funds.
"The Fool" has a lot of very good educational information available, especially for people who are new to investing. Many people do not understand that Wall Street is in the business of making money for Wall Street, not making money for investors.
I have stayed with the Fool because their philosophy aligns with my personal investment philosophy. I look at the Stock Advisor picks; sometimes I buy them, sometimes I don't, but the analysis is very good. They also have been good at tracking their picks over time, and writing updates when specific stocks drop a certain amount. With their help, I've assembled a portfolio that I don't have to spend too much time managing, and have done pretty well from a return perspective.
Stock Advisor also has a good set of forums where you can interact with other investors.
In summary, the view from the inside has been pretty good.
From the outside, I think their marketing is a reflection of the fact that most people aren't very interested in a rational & conservative approach to investing in the stock market, so MF chooses to go for an approach that gets more traffic. I'm not particularly excited about it, but I'm sure they've done AB testing and have figured out what way works the best.
I think that they have had money-back guarantees on some of their programs in the past, so you could try them out risk free. Not sure if those are still around.
answered Mar 10 '14 at 3:13
Not sure how I came across the Motley Fool blog in the first instance, but found the writing style refreshing - then along came some free advice on ASX share prospects, then the next day and email expounding the benefits I would get by joining up for two years at 60% off if I hit the button "now", getting in at ground floor on the next technology stock rocket - I replied:
"What a hard sell - why wouldn't I apply the age old adage of " If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is"
Their reply was;
"Thanks for your note. The honest answer is that despite people knowing they should do something to help themselves prepare for their financial futures, few actually do it. We find these messages actually work in getting people to hit 'yes', much better than an understated email that just says 'here are our results and our philosophy - let us know if you're interested', unfortunately.
So I have put some of these recommendations onto a watch list, time will tell.
I would personally beware of the Motley Fool. Their success is based largely on their original investment strategy book. It had a lot of good advice in it, but it pushed a strategy called "The Foolish Four" which was an investing strategy.
Since it was based on a buy-and-hold method with 18-month evaluation intervals, it was not a get-rich-quick scheme. However, its methods were validated through data mining and subsequently turned out to be not so good.
answered Mar 7 '14 at 21:43
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The Motley Fool Reviews
Comments about The Motley Fool :
This site is awesome if you are looking to increase your knowledge of the stock market. They cover all the aspects you could want such as charts, quote information, picks, articles, and recent news. They offer professional advice for all levels of traders. If you are looking to start trading stocks than the site's set up is very simple and easy to navigate. They also have their information put in a way that anybody can understand. An added bonus to the Motley Fool is that it will offer advice to you on different kinds of ways to invest and improve your finance comprehension. For example, they have lots of short term trading tips and tricks. While still giving your information on how to build wealth over a long term for things like retirement funds and 401k accounts. The best part of this whole site is that it is all free. Nothing will cost you a dime on this site. So go check out the site, only good things will happen as long as you have a willingness to learn and keep an open mind.
Bottom Line Yes, I would recommend this to a friend
( 9 of 9 customers found this review helpful)
Comments about The Motley Fool :
Where do you turn for financial advice? With the invention of the internet, the possibilities are endless, but one service you should consider if you’re serious about investing is Motley Fool. Let’s take a closer look at this service:
Motley Fool is popular on the internet as a resource for investors. This web site’s name appears in many different places on the web and many newer investors might mistakenly believe that The Motley Fool is a brand - new operation. In fact, The Motley Fool has been around for a little bit longer than that. The company was founded in 1993 and the world wide web has helped it grow into a superstar financial web service.
So, what do you get when you visit The Motley Fool? Well, you get a web site that covers the world of investments from different angles and often with very good, very timely articles on what to invest in and when to invest. The Motley Fool is good for both rookies and seasoned investors - it offers tutorials on investing that explain what investing is all about, how to invest, how to select a broker, etc. as well as more advanced topics like options and ETFs.
Motley Fool is best utilized by setting up a personal account and taking advantage of the many different tools found in the site. My favorite aspect of the Motley Fool is its CAPS community. This feature pools together the expertise and opinions of Motley Fool members across the country and it comes complete with a stock research tool and star ratings for different investments. I have used the CAPS ratings to select several different investments, and most every one of them has performed well. This feature is available by setting up an account, which can be accomplished in minutes.
**Bottom Line Viewpoint:**
The Motley Fool is one of my favorite financial web sites and one in which I continue to turn for financial information. The site is very timely and features some solid articles on investments, with advice that covers many aspects of the investing process. Some of the features will cost you money, but others are free and they make for a solid, well - rounded financial web service.
Bottom Line Yes, I would recommend this to a friend
Comments about The Motley Fool :
The other day I was sniffing around in the Internet, trying to find out how much of a beating we were going to take THIS year on our USB dividends and so it was that as I thrashed through the virtual forest, I stumbled upon a clearing which was occupied by ***The Motley Fool***, the website for people who are interested in -- and may have questions about -- stocks or other financial investments.
Founded in July, 1993, by David and Tom Gardner, along with Erik Rydholm, ***The Motley Fool*** has evolved into a widely respected and entertaining clearing house of information about how to invest, what stocks to buy, and retirement planning. ***The Motley Fool*** is a gold mine of sometimes fascinating articles such as "*Home Run Stocks You Should Never Buy", "Are You Too Smart to Be Rich?", "Seven Reasons to Worry About Next Week", "Three Signs of a Terrible Investment", "Three Housing 'Truisms' That Make No Sense", "This Week's Five Smartest Stock Moves*" and of course *"This Week's Five **Dumbest **Stock Moves." *
***The Motley Fool*** website (***Fool. com***) is free to all. Registering means a chance to log in and explore even more. There are other things to sign up for (some are free, some not) if you so desire. You may not agree with everything you read here and that is as it should be. The guys who run "The Fool" don't pretend to know it all but they provide a lot of good food for thought. Even if you're not a "serious" investor and only own a few stocks, to pass up a chance like this may be really foolish.
Bottom Line Yes, I would recommend this to a friend
-4830 Days Left in the Challenge
*Not part of the challenge - provided for information purposes only Click to see portfolio holdings and transaction details .
Details on the Challenge
Motley Fool throws down the gauntlet In a January article Motley Fool writer Bill Mann tells readers to forget about using options to enhance their portfolio performance, "Don't believe it: options are a zero-sum game." And "there is no wealth creation at all in options." "There is no way for options writing to generate value…. Options are a complex sideshow to investing in which the expected total return on invested capital is negative. Go there if you want to, but there is nothing inherently superior in strategies using options, and there is no options strategy that will provide a risk-free return."
Obviously we strongly disagree with his statements Options are not for everyone and they do involve risk… It says this at the bottom of every PowerOptionsPlus page. But we believe that investors who use conservative strategies and the tools on our site will find option investing should improve their portfolio performance. That's why we back up our site with a Performance Guarantee.
The Motley Fool/"Big Boy" Challenge After reading the Motley Fool article, we challenged the writer to a contest. We both start with $100,000 and pick five stocks from the Motley Fool 50 list. He invests Foolishly and we invest like the "Big Boys" using options of course. The Motley Fool writer chose to invest his entire $100,000 in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Vipers). This is not the stock we would have put $100,000 into (not a lot of strike prices offered and it has a lower trading volume), but we took the challenge. To help people see how to use options to hedge a more traditional portfolio, we will also track five stocks from the Motley Fool 50 list. Check back here often to see how the challenge is progressing.
What's on the line? At the end of market trading on December 31,2002, who ever has the highest valued portfolio wins. Bill Mann of Motley Fool has put up a signed copy of the new Motley Fool book for teens. And we have put up a $1,000 donation to the YMCA of Metropolitan Chicago to support their computer literacy program at Y Lifelong Learning Centers in six low-income Chicago neighborhoods. And we will donate 2 hours to show a group of their teens the basics of investing.
Motley Fool Portfolio
Tuesday, 3/22/2017 10:30:31 AM ET - 20 min. retrasado
More information on the charity The YMCA's Lifelong Learning Centers (LLCs) are computer labs where local children and families go to get online, learn skills, and have fun. The need for this access was identified as a priority in each neighborhood by residents of all ages, many of whom do not have a computer in the home. Each LLC provides technology exposure for preschoolers, some kind of computer skills training for all ages, internet access, and after school activities. Cash donations - corporate sponsors - and volunteers are needed as partners with the LLCs and Daphne Black (312) 932-1241 can be reached at the YMCA for more information.
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I foolishly stumbled upon this website (the motley fool - www. fool. co. uk ) after searching the web for investment advice and community advice. I joined the discussion board and after several weeks of what I can only describe as "grooming" invested in a product which was discussed on the site. At the end of the day, with hindsight it is my own fault, but all said and done this website is a company which itself sells products and its discussion boards are not closely monitored since it freely advocates slander and self promotion - very clever really. Personally, I think you would get more honest and independent information from a Childs comic. If you look for investments on the internet, my advice is shop around - if a company seems to good to be true, has discussion boards which are easy to join and even easier to post upon and encourage their version of "freedom of speech" then run away as fast as you can. Looking on the web there are now several negative comments about this company and worryingly, when you take the time ( I wish I had) to read through all their so called "discussion boards" you will see that its always the same people making comment which makes me think its actually their own staff self promoting by being negative towards other. Im just waiting to see how their critique on the current markets - so far their " informed members seem to be sowing the seeds for a new product - so I can only say watch with caution. if you see something of interest within their site ask an impartial 3rd party - well 2 or 3 qualified people and then make your own mind up. (spend a little getting good advice or risk greater loss)
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The Stock Advisor service is Motley Fool's flagship newsletter, run by Motley Fool founders Tom and Dave Gardner.
When you log on to Stock Advisor, you're presented with an easy to navigate layout. There are three main links: to the latest newsletter issue (published once a month), the newsletter's performance (tracked from the April 2002 issue), and the best previously made recommendations to buy now. When on the current issue page, you can find a link to and read all the past issues, going back to April 2002.
The home page also features updates on past stock picks, as well as links to Motley Fool articles and discussion board messages relating to the newsletter's picks. There are also a couple of interviews with CEOs. These are outdated, the last one being from August 2006.
Each monthly newsletter issue, which you can view in html on the site or download as a pdf, ranges from around five to ten pages, and always contains an introduction, Dave's pick, Tom's pick, and something called "dueling fools." Many, but not all issues contain updates on previous picks, short articles of the same type as you'll find on the Motley Fool website for free (minus advertisements--both 3rd party and for Motley Fool services), a rare bonus stock pick, and/or reviews of Tom's or Dave's performance. Some issues have all of these, some have none.
Each month's introduction is written by Dave or Tom, and contains either something general about the market, the newsletter, an anecdote, or something similar to what you'll find on the Motley Fool site for free.
Dave's and Tom's stock picks are usually one page in length each. These are short blurbs on the reasons for buying the particular stock. The page also includes a brief summary of company data (location, website, market cap, etc). In the pdf version there is also a two year chart. For purposes of illustration and comparison, take a look at Value Line. Look at "Part 3--Ratings & Reports" in the samples section. Dave's and Tom's picks have a lot less in terms of the company's financials, and about twice as much in terms of text.
The Stock Advisor newsletter probably (hopefully) has much less of the analysis that Tom and Dave have actually done. The text portion usually amounts to under 1,000 words. This could be a good thing or a bad thing. On the one hand, as an investor (especially one paying for a stock recommendation service) you would presumably want to be given as much information as possible before making your decision. On the other hand, if you're already paying for stock recommendations, you probably don't feel like spending too much time reading and sifting through mounds of data. As long as the recommended stocks go up, most subscribers probably take the latter view.
Since each month's picks are Dave's and Tom's best ideas for the month, it is not unusual that the same stock gets recommended more than once, sometimes two months in a row.
The "dueling fools" portion of each issue usually concerns one of the recommended stocks in that issue, and perhaps the recommended stock's industry, or some general investing theme of one of the brothers in relation to the recommended stock. The brother who didn't recommend the stock(s) asks the recommender questions, attempting to flesh out the pros and cons of buying the recommended stock. This usually runs about 500 to 1,000 words. This section is meant to cover things neglected on the stock pick page, and perhaps ask some questions subscribers would have. The question/answer format makes for easy reading, which is a plus. The nature of the questions, however, is not very pointed. That is, the questions aren't meant to really point out the flaws of the stock recommendation. Rather, the questioner seems to know what the answers will be ahead of time.
The company updates section usually consists of a paragraph about each update of a past recommended stock. The update concerns company news, movement in stock price, industry developments, and the like. The number of companies updated ranges from one to ten.
Some newsletter issues contain a "best buys now" section. As mentioned earlier, this is also an easy to find link on the newsletter's homepage. "Best buys now" is a list of past recommendations that the brothers think are, well, the best buys now, besides their current recommendations. When there is a "best buys now" section in the newsletter issue, it is accompanied by a brief article (
300 words) about the stocks.
Occasionally, newsletters have sells of past recommended stocks. Since April 2002, the brothers have sold under 30% of their picks.
Besides the newsletter, there is a series of discussion boards. All the recommended stocks have discussion boards. There are also various boards devoted to different topics like investing philosophy, buying strategies, etc. Whatever you can think of, there's probably a discussion board devoted to that topic. Subscribers and Motley Fool employees post here. Think of the Yahoo! Finance boards without all the stupidity, name calling, etc, and with topics beyond just individual stocks.
Dave and Tom have a competition going, and their performances are measured separately. Pick performance is measured by the percentage increase or decrease in a stock's price from the time it was picked. Each brother's total performance is the average of all their gains and losses. This includes stocks they recommended last month as well as those recommended in 2002. As of writing, Dave's average is a gain of about 82%. Tom's average is a gain of about 45%. Dave's best pick so far has yielded a gain of 925%, and dates back from 2002. His worst pick is a loss of 88% on a stock recommended in 2003 and subsequently sold. Tom's best pick was made in 2003 and has so far yielded him around 580%. His worst pick, dating from 2007, is currently down 74%.
Performance is also measured as against the S & P 500, both for each stock picked and for the average return for each brother. For example, a stock picked in June 2002 is compared with the S & P 500 from June 2002.
For both brothers, the winners are handily beating the losers. Together (as of writing) they are outperforming the S & P by about 46%. As of writing, their recommendations have a total average gain of 64% since 2002. That makes for around an 8.33% annualized rate of return.
So, is it possible for an individual investor to keep up with all the Stock Advisor recommendations? Some stock gurus (e. g. Jim Cramer) recommend so many stocks that their performance doesn't matter, as retail investors don't have enough cash to make so many trades. What's the case with Stock Advisor?
As mentioned, each Gardner gives you one stock pick per month, and sometimes there is a bonus stock pick. The average is close to a total of two picks per month. Most people can probably devote a portion of their income toward buying two stocks a month. Whether it's practical depends on broker commissions and amount invested. I go into this in detail in the cost section below.
A Stock Advisor subscription is currently $149 per year. If you buy stocks based on the newsletter's recommendations, you should probably include brokerage commissions in the cost. If we assume $7 a trade, and you buy every recommendation (24 a year), that's an extra $168 a year (this does not include selling stocks, buying bonus picks, or buying previously recommended stocks that the Gardners call "best buys now"). So, if you buy all the regular recommended stocks, the service will cost you $317 per year. If you buy the bonus picks, "best buys now," and sell your positions, you'll obviously have more broker commissions and your total cost in using the service will be higher.
Before going to practicality, it should be noted that brokerage costs can be reduced. For example, TradeKing has commissions of $4.95. Sharebuilder has $4 commissions for automated orders (the fee for selling, however, is $9.95). Besides fee differences, different brokers have other advantages and disadvantages. For instance, at TradeKing, you can set a limit order for that $4.95 trade, but you cannot buy fractional shares. So, let's say you want to invest $500 in each recommendation. If the stock costs around $17 a share, you can either buy 29 shares (for $493) or 30 shares (for $510). Or, you can wait for the stock to drop to $16.67 and buy 30 shares. It's hard, without fractional shares, to invest a specified dollar amount. With Sharebuilder, in contrast, you can buy fractional shares (use your entire dollar amount), but you can't specify the price, and can only buy once a week. There are other brokers, of course, and they have their own advantages and disadvantages. All this is to say that in analyzing the practicality of following the Stock Advisor service there are many factors to consider and, for sake of simplicity, certain assumptions (broker fees, dollar amount per trade, number of trades, etc) have to be made.
So, I'll analyze the practicality with two examples. The first one will have the assumptions outlined above: $7 a trade, and you buy 24 stocks a year, selling none. The total cost here, as mentioned, is $317 a year.
For the second scenario, let's say you pay $4 in broker fees, and everything else is the same as above. Here, you'll pay $96 in broker fees. Your total cost will thus be $245 a year.
As a rule of thumb, your total investment expenses shouldn't be more than 2% of the amount you're investing, as far as practicality is concerned. In the first scenario, you have to invest $15,850 a year ($700 per month, $350 per stock) to keep your expenses at 2%. In the second scenario, you have to invest $12,250 per year ($400 a month, $200 a stock) to keep your expenses at 2%.
Taking the second scenario, if you normally invest $12,250 or more a year and have at least the additional $245 a year for the costs, then the Stock Advisor service is practical for you. If you cannot afford to invest this much, for example, if you are unable to save at least $12,495 ($245 in costs plus $12,250 investment amount) a year or $1041.25 a month, the Stock Advisor service is not practical for you.
It may also be useful to compare Stock Advisor with what you'd pay to invest in a good mutual fund. We can, after all, look at the Gardners as managers of a mutual fund. If you buy all their picks, it's like investing in a mutual fund.
Consider for example the T Rowe Price New Asia Fund (PRASX ). Its five year (similar period as Stock Advisor) annualized rate of return is 31.34%, and it has an expense ratio of 0.93% with no transaction fees. The fund's minimum initial investment is $2,500. Subsequent investments must be $100 or over.
As another example, take Fidelity's Spartan International Index fund (FSIIX ). Its five year average return is 19.07%. The fund sports an expense ratio of .2% and no transaction fees. Its initial minimum investment is $10,000. Subsequent investments must be $1,000 or over.
Both of these funds, it seems to me, would be more practical for individual investors, not to mention more profitable. Past performance does not guarantee future performance, obviously, but the same can be said for Stock Advisor. So long as the mutual fund's managers are the same now as they were during the period of the performance considered, the comparison between the mutual fund and Stock Advisor is apt.
If we look at Stock Advisor as a mutual fund, you can find better mutual funds out there (in terms of returns and expenses). That is, there are better places to put your money than Stock Advisor. Note, though, that the more successful a mutual fund is, the harder it is for its managers to continue their performance. This is because the more successful the fund is, the more money it has. The more money it has to invest, the harder it is to grow at the same rates.
One may argue that Stock Advisor shouldn't be compared with mutual funds or other investments. Rather, it is a place where you're suggested stocks, on which you should do further research. Fair enough. But if you're paying someone else to recommend you stocks, they're supposed to be better than you at doing research. Otherwise, what's the point of paying them for it? If they're better than you, what good will your own research be to you? If you have to determine, on your own, which of the Stock Advisor recommendations you should buy, then it seems as though you have to know which recommendations are better than others. Again, if you're capable of making such determinations on your own, why are you paying others to do research? If this is the case, save the money, and find your own stocks.
If you're paying for stock recommendations because you don't want to do further research, then you're investing in a mutual fund. That you have to make the individual stock trades yourself does not void the comparison. As such, there are better mutual funds out there.
If you want to find out (potential) newsletter picks for free, check out the Stock Gumshoe. My review is here .
Renuncia
The author assumes no responsibilities for actions taken by readers. The author does not provide investment advice, nor does he make any claims, promises, or guarantees that any suggestions, systems, methods, trading strategies, or any other information will result in a profit, loss, or any other desired result. All readers assume all risk, including but not limited to the risk of losses.
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Approach This RRSP Season Like a Pro
Dear Foolish Investor,
Welcome to an “Open House” of sorts for our newest investment service here in Canada, Motley Fool Pro Canada.
With the RRSP deadline right around the corner … with the TSX officially in “bear market” territory … with the energy industry outlook looking grim for the foreseeable future, many investors we hear from are wondering how to position their portfolios in these volatile times.
Over the next couple of weeks, we’ll be sharing a few stock ideas, tips, and tricks from Pro Canada lead adviser Jim Gillies, a seasoned veteran with an enviable track record here at the Fool.
Before you dive into some of the stocks on Jim’s radar … or ask our “Pros” a Foolish question … or learn about income-producing strategies designed for any type of market, here’s what you can expect from Jim and his Pro Canada team:
What We Believe
Our greatest edge is a long-term focus (3-5 years). This allows us to tune out the noise of day-to-day market fluctuations.
We invest in businesses, not ticker symbols.
Buying stocks at a discount to their fair value reduces our risk and boosts our returns.
‘Tis better to own a great business at a fair price than a fair business at a great price.
Growth and value are joined at the hip.
Options are best deployed to leverage our understanding of the underlying business and its valuation. Not as speculation vehicles, but rather as tools for building portfolios and enhancing returns.
Your best interest is aligned with ours. The Motley Fool will invest its own real money into the portfolio, and many of the positions may represent personal holdings of the portfolio advisers.
Transparency is healthy and Foolish. We will announce all portfolio moves to our Pro Canada members before The Motley Fool or the portfolio advisers execute them.
I hope you can invest like a “Pro” in 2017.
Meet the Pros
Jim Gillies | Lead Portfolio Adviser
Jim Gillies is Pro Canada’s lead portfolio adviser and co-advisor of the American service, Motley Fool Options. A dyed-in-the-wool value investor and lover of small equities, Jim also supplements his prudent portfolio with opportunistic options strategies. He believes that if you can’t tell a story with numbers, it’s probably not worth telling. When not playing with financial matters, he’s honing his amateur chef skills, mashing around the country on one of his bikes, or futilely anticipating the return to glory of the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders (it’s been a long wait).
Iain Butler | Contributing Adviser
Iain Butler is a contributing adviser on Pro Canada. He is also the Chief Investment Adviser for Motley Fool Canada and is the lead adviser on its flagship Stock Advisor Canada service. Before joining the Fool, Iain was a “buy-side” analyst and through this experience is well-versed in the idiosyncratic ways of the Canadian market. His investing interests are centred on scouring the market for interesting businesses that trade at reasonable prices and offer an appealing risk/reward relationship. Since joining the Fool in 2012, Iain dedicates each day to spreading Foolishness throughout this great country!
Taylor Muckerman | Investment Analyst
Taylor is Pro Canada’s investment analyst, an analyst on Stock Advisor Canada, and the Associate General Manager for Motley Fool Canada. He started at the Fool in 2012 as an analyst covering Energy & Materials companies. Taylor brings several years of investing experience to the table and earned his Masters of Business Administration from the University of Maryland. He has a passion for all things outdoors and brings his penchant for exploration directly to his work at Motley Fool Canada. Onward!
Motley Fool Canada’s Definitive 2017 Guide to RRSPs
Dear Fellow Fools,
Many in the financial world would like you to believe that we have five seasons here in Canada—the traditional four, plus “RRSP season.”
As if the snow and cold aren’t enough of a battle at this time of year, it’s tough to turn around these days without being bombarded with chatter for this rather fictional fifth season.
While much of the hoopla that surrounds “RRSP season” can be contrived, the underlying principle behind this savings mechanism is incredibly important.
Simply put, utilizing an RRSP can make a very material difference to your long-term savings. To help you weed through the ins-and-outs, which can oftentimes be lost in the sensationalistic deadline push that occurs, we’ve enlisted the help of our highly regarded friend Jonathan Chevreau. Mr. Chevreau has spent his career in financial journalism, and we could think of no one more qualified to give our Foolish readers the full particulars on this “gift” from our government (a gift that, sadly, many Canadians don’t take better advantage of!).
You’re going to hear a lot more about RRSPs in the weeks ahead.
Our hope is that what you’re about to read will help you better comprehend what all the fuss is about.
Our thanks to Jonathan for lending a hand in our ongoing attempt to help us all invest—better.
Foolish best wishes, Iain Butler, CFA Chief Investment Adviser, Motley Fool Canada
LIVE Investing Chat With our Pro Team — Coming Feb. 22
Our Motley Fool Pro Canada team will be answering questions from Fools about our real-money portfolio service. Participants in the chat include: Lead Portfolio Adviser Jim Gillies, Contributing Adviser Iain Butler, and Investment Analyst Taylor Muckerman. Here’s your chance to ask the Pro team anything on your mind — but be aware, you might want to set yourself a reminder, as the last time we did these the team fielded hundreds of questions!
Live Blog Pro Canada Live Investing Chat
Pro Watch List Stock #1 – Bank of Nova Scotia
WHAT DOES BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA DO?
As one of Canada’s “Big 5” banks, and probably one of this country’s most recognizable corporations, it’s unlikely that anyone reading this has not heard of the Bank of Nova Scotia (aka. Scotiabank). However, to ensure we’re all on the same page, Scotiabank is rooted in its domestic retail banking operations. The company counts 10 million customers across Canada and services this collection with more than 1,000 branches, 3,900 ATMs, and, boosted by its acquisition of Tangerine (formerly ING), a strong internet/mobile banking platform.
Beyond the retail banking platform lies an extensive commercial banking operation, a significant wealth management division, as well as a prominent investment bank.
From cashing a cheque to structuring a multi-billion dollar corporate merger, like its big bank peers, Scotia offers a one-stop shop for financial services.
Banking, if done right is a fantastic business. And because of the banking oligopoly that exists in this country, we’ve one of the world’s best markets for this business to thrive. This dynamic is shared amongst the other Canadian banks but offers a solid footing for an investment.
Two things help Scotia to stand out. One, its international exposure is unmatched by its Canadian banking peers. Scotia has exposure to markets – more specifically Latin American markets – that offer significant long-term opportunity. Not only are these markets relatively underserved when it comes to financial services, expected economic growth from these regions, in which Scotia will participate, is appealing.
The other defining feature is the current valuation at which Scotia trades, both in absolute and relative terms. Market concerns have led to a near-Credit Crisis level valuation (as measured by price-to-book value)…without an actual credit crisis in play.
Concerns are largely short-term focused and largely surround two dynamics – Canadian housing and energy exposure. Though valid, in our opinion fears relating to both are overblown. One piece of data to point to on the housing front is that about about 40% of loans are insured, and the average LTV of the uninsured loans in in the low 50%’s (compare that to some American banks who were offering combined mortgage/HELOC’s during the run-up to the crisis of 125% LTV). And on the energy front, yes, the bank, like its peers, has exposure, but this is very much “ring fenced” within the business and entirely manageable, in our opinion.
THE PRO BOTTOM LINE
Great businesses are rare. Great businesses selling at great valuations are even more rare, yet that’s exactly what we think we have with Scotia. Not only does it trade at an unwarranted (low) multiple, it’s important to consider the dividend yield exceeds 5% and this is a company with a long history of increasing its dividend. Mr. Market is serving up a fat pitch with this one and our team thinks it’s worth taking a swing.
Disclosure: The Motley Fool recommends The Bank of Nova Scotia (USA). Iain Butler owns shares of The Bank of Nova Scotia (USA). Iain Butler has the following options: short March 2017 $60 puts on The Bank of Nova Scotia (USA).
Pro Watch List Stock #2 – Pulse Seismic
WHAT DOES PULSE SEISMIC DO?
As the company’s name suggests, Pulse owns and manages an extensive library of 2-D and 3-D seismic data, which is integral to oil and gas exploration in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The business model that surrounds this data is rather simplistic in that revenue is generated by essentially renting out this seismic data. The more companies that come knocking for Pulse’s data, the better, which is why exploration activity is a critical component of this equation.
The data that Pulse owns comprises a unique asset. Demand for this asset ebbs and flows with exploration activity in the WCSB, but given its importance, tends to hold up very nicely over the long-term. Making Pulse especially enticing these days is that currently, given the decline in activity that’s occurred, this asset is on sale – big time. Demand is (historically) low, and this has been reflected by the decline that the stock has experienced. Our analysis indicates that the company carries very little financial risk relative to its peers, costs very little to operate, and stands to benefit when activity levels normalize.
The timing of a normalization of activity levels in the WCSB is anyone’s guess. We’ve no idea when this may occur, but we’re very comfortable in our belief that Pulse’s current valuation has accounted for a prolonged slump.
THE PRO BOTTOM LINE
This is a company that ticks a lot of the boxes when it comes to what makes for an intriguing investment. Unique asset, lean operation, limited financial risk, and what we see as a CHEAP valuation. The one issue is the macro exposure to energy prices that it has, which correspond to activity levels, but in our mind, this exposure is well reflected by the stock’s valuation.
Disclosure: Jim Gillies owns shares of Pulse Seismic.
Pro Watch List Stock #3 – OpenText Corporation
WHAT DOES OPENTEXT CORP DO?
Beginning as a research project at the University of Waterloo, OpenText digitized all 60 million words of the Oxford Dictionary before graduating to a fully incorporated entity in the summer of 1991.
Soon after, Open Text found itself employed by the likes of Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) in the early stages of the 1990s Internet boom. Since these humble beginnings, OpenText has become a company that generated US$1.9 billion in revenue during 2017.
Through a blend of organic and acquisitive growth, OpenText is now regarded as a “global go-to leader” in Enterprise Information Management (EIM). Since 1995, OpenText has added 50 businesses by way of acquisition.
As things stand, OpenText boasts a qualified CEO at the helm, its own business lines to grow (we think some are very promising), and ideas of spending $3 billion on acquisitions over the next few years. It’s this combination that leaves us believing that the market is at risk of missing out on the full picture.
OpenText projects that by 2020 the world will have to deal with 50 times the amount of information produced in 2012. Growth in access to smartphones, ecommerce, and social media (among other things) will all be contributors. Just look at Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR)—each day Twitter generates eight times more data than the New York Stock Exchange. Talk about a head scratcher!
The vast majority of this data will be unstructured. OpenText prides itself on being capable of simplifying and transforming its customers’ information needs, regardless of the data type.
To break down this tremendous growth in data: Nearly 70% is likely to be produced by consumers. Understanding customers—and how to most accurately and efficiently address their wants and needs—will continue to grow in importance. OpenText is addressing this head on.
In addition to the demand for EIM solutions, companies are searching for ways to run these platforms via the cloud rather than strictly on-premises solutions. By 2020, it is believed that cloud platforms could be worth $44 billion in revenue each year . Again, we think OpenText stands to benefit. “Cloud services” is OpenText’s fastest-growing revenue segment and its highest-margin business.
As with most areas within the technology industry, continual advancements in products and services are critical to staying ahead. Thus far, OpenText has been able to stay ahead both with internal growth and through acquisitions.
As mentioned, management plans to put up to $3 billion to work over the next couple years in this channel. And, while it has an impressive track record when adding companies to its portfolio, a slip-up during integration or overpaying in the market could result in meaningful write-downs, lost time, or both.
In terms of client-specific risk, according to our assessment, OpenText is quite secure. At the end of 2017, no single customer made up more than 10% of total revenue. Geographically, revenue streams rush in from all around the globe, with the majority (56%) flowing from the Americas. To maintain this diversification, management stated it is comfortable growing in stable locales while Europe and certain countries in Asia become less turbulent.
One last risk to mention, and one that has made some headlines (though not for OpenText), is that of information security. Any missteps with client information could lead to immediate loss of business and a tough road ahead in attracting new ones. Much like the acquisition front, OpenText has a great track record with security, leaving us with confidence. To be clear, though, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
THE PRO BOTTOM LINE
Google (Nasdaq: GOOGL)(Nasdaq: GOOG) processes petabytes of data each day. eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) handles millions of transactions each day. I mentioned Twitter above.
And that’s just three companies (albeit three successful companies).
As a result, collecting, managing, analyzing, and building out strategies to act upon the knowledge gained will set many companies apart. Need proof? A 2017 McKinsey paper highlighted that “digital transformation can boost the bottom line by 50% over the next five years.”
Thankfully for the companies wise enough to get a head start, we think OpenText is there to guide them through and provide the tools necessary to succeed in the digital age.
Disclosure: Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. David Gardner owns shares of Alphabet (A shares) and Alphabet (C shares). Jim Gillies owns shares of Twitter. Jim Gillies has the following options: long January 2017 $45 calls on eBay and short January 2017 $45 puts on eBay. Tom Gardner owns shares of Alphabet (A shares) and Alphabet (C shares). The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Alphabet (A shares), Alphabet (C shares), eBay, and Twitter. The Motley Fool recommends Yahoo.
Pro Watch List Stock #4 – Chuy’s Holdings
WHAT DOES CHUY’S HOLDINGS DO?
From the décor to its menu, Chuy’s Tex - Mex Restaurants bring a fresh concept to customers. With experienced industry CEO Steve Hislop now at the helm, Chuy’s is moving from regional concept to national leader in full-service Tex-Mex Dining.
We think the national opportunity is as big as Chuy’s own “Big As Yo’ Face” burrito. In this way, it reminds me just a wee bit of Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD), though even more niche than the chicken-wing purveyor.
With a market cap just under $500 million USD, Chuy’s could set early investors up for some healthy gains as the company continues to dot the national landscape with new restaurants and introduces more of the nation to authentic Tex-Mex cuisine.
Chuy’s is betting big on future growth and this strategy is resonating with customers. The restaurateur has consistently delivered positive same store sales growth and impresses us with great restaurant-level economics and average restaurant sales of $4.8 million.
It’s no surprise then that Chuy’s management aims to develop restaurants at a blistering 20% annual pace. Add in a debt-free balance sheet, and you’ve got all the ingredients for what we think will be a long-term winner.
We’re not the only ones that’ve been clued into Chuys’ growth prospects, which is one reason why shares trade at a premium valuation. This can be a risk in the near term.
In fact, in 2017, Chuy’s was hit by a perfect storm of food inflation and a few tepid openings from the previous year that spooked the market. This came to a head in late in the year, when a poor earnings report sent the shares down 31% in one day.
But time is our best friend. Fast forward to today, shares are up 40% as concerns over food inflation and a couple underperforming restaurants are now a faint memory.
To be clear, Chuy’s could disappoint again. The company has 65 locations spanning only 14 states, and is in the early innings of its regional-to-national push. Growth pains will likely emerge.
Also, Tex-Mex has a bad rap in many smaller markets, where diners have indigestion from years of eating junk at Chili’s and Taco Bell, and this leaves them skeptical of an unknown like Chuy’s. Chipotle’s (NYSE: CMG) recent nation-wide E. coli breakout certainly didn’t help.
But management recognizes these weaknesses and previously doubled down on local advertising in areas where it’s already a player and backfills with a few more locations to build brand awareness.
THE PRO BOTTOM LINE
The beauty of Chuy’s is that it’s largely unknown. Today, this is a Southern chain that most people have never heard of. Meanwhile, the company is generating more than $20 million in owner earnings per year. Analysts are projecting north of 20% annualized earnings growth rates, which Chuy’s has been beating handily. The balance sheet is debt-free. And all of its restaurants are company-owned.
Add in the fact that Chuy’s gives us small-cap exposure outside of Canada’s bread and butter sectors, and we’re excited about potentially adding Chuy’s Holdings to our portfolio. We recognize it may be a volatile ride in coming years, but that’s nothing we can’t handle, Fools!
Disclosure: Jim Gillies owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill and Chuy’s Holdings. Tom Gardner owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill and Chuy’s Holdings. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill and Chuy’s Holdings. Andy Cross owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill. David Gardner owns shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill.
Pro Watch List Stock #5 – Enbridge
WHAT DOES ENBRIDGE DO
If you’re like most of us and are a Canadian consumer of oil and/or natural gas, in one form or another, there’s a good chance Enbridge helps to facilitate that consumption. The company owns an extensive network of energy transportation and distribution assets that span North America and comprise a virtually irreplaceable footprint. The business is fueled by a largely recurring stream of revenues as energy products flow across its network and because it operates as a toll road of sorts, fluctuating commodity prices aren’t nearly the concern that they are for the companies that explore for and produce oil and natural gas in North America.
The insulation from the volatile underlying commodities that Enbridge offers makes it a somewhat unique way to gain exposure to the energy industry. And given the out-of-favour nature of the industry, Enbridge’s stock currently trades at a level not seen in a number of years. In addition, the company’s track record of sharing the stability of its revenue base by way of an ongoing, and consistently growing dividend is second to none.
The company has a bevy of expansion products in front of it and concern has crept in over how these projects might be funded given the general malaise that’s gripped the industry. It’s our belief that there are enough internal levers to pull that even if outside financing disappears, many of its expansion projects will still move forward. Even if there is a pause, the North American energy industry is likely to normalize at some point – and Enbridge will be ready to play when this occurs.
THE PRO BOTTOM LINE
While Enbridge doesn’t offer the same “flash” as a high-tech, go-go growth company, you’d be hard pressed to find a stock that’s been a better long-term investment, especially when the underlying risks are considered. By growing its network, and generously rewarding its shareholders by-way of a consistently increasing dividend, Enbridge has been a company to buy-and-hold for decades, literally. There’s little reason to believe the Enbridge formula is broken and the current industry swoon has provided an opportunity to buy this stock that we’ve not seen for quite some time.
The 7 Rules to Using Options Foolishly
*Disclosure: For educational use only. This video was filmed in May 2017. The MoneySaver webinar took place that same month. And, our live options trade has come and gone with time, but the “7 Rules to Using Options Foolishly” still hold true.
Meet Jim Gillies, Lead Portfolio Adviser, Pro Canada
Praise for our Foolish Pros
Watch as an unassuming mother of two named Leslie Walsh transforms herself from a complete investing “rookie” — who had never even invested in a stock let alone an option — into a real Pro .
A Pro who’s used Jim Gillies’ 88.1% successful options recommendations to earn steady income, to help insulate her portfolio from loss, and most importantly, to grow more confident & more secure than she ever thought possible.
(And spend more free time outdoors enjoying her backyard view of the Rocky Mountains than she ever thought possible, too.)
More Praise for Jim Gillies (now lead portfolio adviser for Motley Fool Pro Canada)
Just paid my son’s fall semester tuition “You are my new favorite people. KMI warrants: 45% return in 45 days. I just paid my son’s fall semester tuition on your rec. Gracias. I like the way you operate.”
– James, San Diego, CA
More Praise for Motley Fool Pro (U. S.) and lead advisor Jeff Fischer
Doubled my investment… “Kudos, Pro team. Another excellent chapter for this stock pick. I’ve liked KCI from day one, doubled my investment when they shrank back a bit last year, and really enjoyed this run up (a lot). Thank you for your research, your advice, and this great service!” – R. C. O’Fallon, MO
“Well worth the price…” “This really is a first-class service, and I am having a great time learning and implementing the strategies. Well worth the price of entry in my book.” – Mike H. Redmond, WA
Wife says RENEW! “When I signed up for Pro almost a year ago, my wife said, ‘What is that charge for Motley Fool Pro, and how could a name like that be anything you would trust?’ Last week she said, ‘Don’t forget to renew the PRO membership,’ as it has helped her set a retirement date.” – D. H. Kenai, AK
Our accounts are up 98.7%… “I can emphatically say Pro has been a ‘strong wind in our sails’… Using the time period of Jan. 31, 2009, to today, our accounts (retirement and investment) are up 98.7%… what Pro and the Pro community have done for my investment knowledge, confidence, and ability to build a portfolio that I can sleep with at night are immeasurable.” – Gerald H. Wichita, KS
Best investment ever… “My experience has simply been more than words can adequately describe, and I cannot imagine not being a member. My best investment ever was joining the Fool and Pro in particular.” – Matt D. Pittsburgh, PA
Praise for Motley Fool Stock Advisor Canada and lead adviser Iain Butler
.
Motley Fool Canada was ranked as a top 10 personal finance website by LSM Insurance.
Motley Fool Canada was ranked as a top 10 online research tool for dividend growth investors by The Globe & Mail
“I’ve been quite delighted with the advent of Fool Canada (espece d’idiots canadiens) and find the articles clear, concise, and useful.” – W. Young, Ottawa, ON
“Canadians need independent investment advice from a trusted source, and Motley Fool is just the channel.” – Marc V. . Canuck living abroad in Peru
“Thank you for the very helpful hints in your website in the past several weeks. I’ve made some stock purchases which so far have been very successful.” – Alexis Y. chartered professional accountant, Markham, ON
“I actually prefer TSX investments in our portfolio, and I’m so glad that the Fool has a dedicated Canadian arm to bring me the latest and greatest in my preferred market. Investing in solid Canadian companies is win-win to me!” – Leanne M.
“The Motley Fool services are amazing. I will never have to use an Advisor in my life!”
Thank you for taking the time to be so detailed and use words and thought that I understand. I hope to know as much as you in the years to come.
El rendimiento pasado no es garantía de resultados futuros. Leslie Walsh is a member of Motley Fool Options (U. S.) and Motley Fool Pro (U. S.). Her experience or that of any other member is an individual’s opinion and may not be your experience.
Ask a Pro
Questions About Pro Canada ?
Our portfolio recommendation service reopens to new members soon — on Feb. 23! Between now and then, we encourage you to ask us anything about Pro Canada, the Motley Fool Canada service in which Adviser Jim Gillies invests $250,000 CAD of The Motley Fool’s own real money in plain view of members.
We’ll sort through all the questions, and answer the ones that we deem to be the most pressing and most widely applicable right here at fool. ca/pro-hub.
As hundreds of thousands of frenzied Canadians rush to beat the RRSP deadline at the end of the month, one of the most important issues isn’t making headlines. Maybe you’re wondering about it, too.
What will I do with that hard-earned cash sitting on the sidelines in my RRSP?
The TSX is a roller coaster… oil prices are tanking… and talking heads from Bay Street to Wall Street are falling all over themselves calling for doom and gloom.
But Jim Gillies isn’t fearful. Pro Canada is Jim’s personal investing service that scours Canadian and U. S. markets for his highest-conviction stocks. It also equips you with his simple strategy to earn paycheque-like income in any market.
Jim patiently waited eight months to finally open the doors to Pro Canada because he wants to ensure that you’re best positioned to potentially profit alongside him.
High-quality stocks are selling for pennies on the dollar and Jim’s time-tested income strategies inside Pro Canada could be the jolt your retirement needs.
The timing couldn’t be any better!
Jim (who has also been the co-advisor of Motley Fool Options since 2008) and Iain Butler (the Chief Investment Adviser for Motley Fool Canada) are here to serve as the voices of reason in a frantic market.
You can ask these “Pros” a question to get all the info you need about Pro Canada leading up to the launch on Feb. 23 simply by hitting the “Ask A Pro” button or sending us an email at pro@fool. ca .
©2017 The Motley Fool. Todos los derechos reservados.
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What is up with The Motley Fool?
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What is up with The Motley Fool? They used to give great advice, but now it seems like they just try to sell their latest newsletter :
“Need help? You can learn all about Tom Gardner’s approach to finding undercovered, undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals and real earnings. If you’d like to subscribe, you can try Tom’s complete Hidden Gems service yourself. If you’re not 100% convinced he’s on to something, just cancel within the first 30 days, and Tom will refund every penny.”
I guess they have to figure out some way to monetize it. It’s just disappointing for it to be so in-your-face. I agree with a lot of their low-cost, long-term investing strategies, but I don’t think I’ll be linking to them anymore.
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About The Motley Fool
The Motley Fool, found online at Fool. com, is a website which claims to be able to provide people with the “next big thing” in computers since Bill Gates created Microsoft.
In order to get any further information regarding this, however, you first must give the website your email address and fill out a short questionnaire regarding your personal investment and trading habits.
You will have to provide The Motley Fool with the type of investments you are considering – such as stocks, real estate, fixed income, etc – as well as how often you trade per month, and the current size of your portfolio.
The questionnaire is also interested in whether you own a small business, your favorite “tickers,” and your zip code. Once you have submitted this information, you’ll be brought to another page where you’ll be given the opportunity to sign up for a wide variety of free financial newsletters.
These newsletters offer headlines regarding popular investment and trading topics, as well as many different stock advisor sites. These different sites provide their users with financial blogs, calculators, and stock promotions.
It is important to note that Fool. com does alert their users that these other websites are advertising partners, which means that they are not professional investment information sites – rather they are for profit websites.
Signing up for these newsletters is likely to result in these sites contacting you with a variety of special offers, subscription opportunities, and purchase opportunities. More importantly, you should be aware of the sites which claim to have the inside track on investment opportunities with large returns.
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You are here: Home » Motley Fool Newsletter Reviews
Motley Fool puts out a couple of highly rated stock newsletters. Their Stock Advisor and Insider publications both garner our highest tier 1 classification rating with Stock Advisor again receiving our annual award for best growth stock newsletter .
Motley Fool Rule Breakers has also done quite well lately but that’s partly due to the fact that the highly volatile small cap growth stocks have performed extremely well of late in this bull market. We don’t rate it as highly because the stock selections can be highly volatile and have suffered large losses when they are out of favor during market downturns. Until the newsletter can show a little more consistency in outperforming the small cap benchmarks we don’t rate it as a top pick.
Motley Fool Hidden Gems has lagged and not performed as well overall. The newest Supernova Portfolio offerings also got off to a rough start in 2012. We would advise caution on these products until they’re able to establish a successful track record.
1) David and Tom Gardner provide insightful stock analysis along with a sound investment philosophy to follow. Their success in helping and educating investors over the years is highly commendable.
2) They expect to hold stocks long-term which reduces capital gains taxes and minimize trading costs. You should expect to hold stocks for a minimum of 3-5 years on average
3) Large Number of Securities Held which increases diversification and decreases the amount of risk you’re taking on any one stock. Bad news in any one holding will not devastate your portfolio.
4) As a new subscriber they provide their list of best buys and core holdings to get you started in the right direction. This makes it easy to scale into a working portfolio following their best selections.
5) Most stocks are well known names with lots of liquidity. Psychologically this makes it easier for people to follow the stocks because they are invested in familiar companies that are making the news.
6) You gain access to the Motley Fool community of subscribers through a forum where you can post questions and get them answered. This eliminates much of the useless spam you find on the message boards such as Yahoo Finance.
1) The results of David Gardner lag that of Tom Gardner. If you stick with the stock picks of Tom Gardner you can potentially increase your returns substantially.
2) One or two stocks are selected each month regardless of current market conditions. This is in keeping with their investment philosophy of always being invested at all times in the best stocks that the market has to offer.
The problem with this philosophy is that it doesn’t take advantage of extreme market conditions. There’s a lot more value and upside potential in stocks after market downturns such as the years 2003 and 2009. Likewise your stock selections can become very overvalued during the later stages of bull markets like we saw in 1999 and 2007.
3) Because the Motley Fool has such a large following it’s often hard to replicate their stock newsletters published performance results. If you receive the newsletter after others many of their recommendations have already popped on a buy recommendation or dropped on a sell recommendation.
4) The number of winning stocks have average 55-65% over time depending on the newsletter. A few big winners account for the majority of their market beating gains. If you’re not in those stocks at the right time you can greatly under perform your expectations.
5) The Motley Fool newsletters are not valuation based. In other words they don’t tell you at what price to buy or sell a stock, only which ones to invest in. They do occasionally provide hold and sell recommendations but these are typically after a stock has already suffered a large loss. This is one of the main complaints of their subscribers.
Motley Fool Newsletter Reviews
The Motley Fool is an online multi-media financial investment and planning stock market newsletter giant. Their philosophy is simple: “To educate, amuse & enrich.” Their goal is to provide consumers valuable financial planning resources without boring them to distraction in the process.
Motley Fool follows a similar format for their Stock Adivsor, Rule Breakers, Insider and Hidden Gems newsletters. Each month you receive 1-2 stock recommendations, a list of 5-10 core stocks and 5-10 of the best stocks to buy now. In addition you receive email updates and access to their member’s only website.
All selections are deemed to be a buy at the current price. This is due to their investing philosophy. Because you can’t time the market it’s best to always be invested in the best companies that the market has to offer. Much like Warren Buffett you are investing for in good companies, solid management and a competitive edge for the long-term.
One of the chief complaints of Motley Fool subscribers is that they don’t provide guidance on when to buy or sell a stock recommendation. The biggest source of frustration is the lack of immediate guidance on what to do with a stock that runs into problems or suffers large losses.
They typically will take a day or two to digest what the news means and then provide a hold or sell recommendation. Although this can be frustrating to investors, it’s prudent because they don’t overreact to the bad news and make the mistake that hurt many investors.
On the other there’s nothing to prevent subscribers from investing in overvalued stocks or being fully invested during brutal market downturns and suffering large losses.
The Motley Fool features page after page of valuable financial insights. This is one of the quirkier stock market newsletters, but that shouldn’t throw off visitors. In fact, it is quite refreshing. The information is well organized into clickable links and presented in a way that anyone can understand it, even if they are clueless about investing.
In addition to stock advice, users will enjoy access to several financial planning tools that will calculate everything from figuring out how much you need in savings to deciding if it makes better financial sense for a college student to live at home, on campus, or rent an apartment.
Getting back to the heart of their stock investment newsletters, Motley Fool offers everything investors need to make and monitor their investments. News stories that affect stocks are presented in a very readable format along with tips about how this current event could affect investments. You’ll learn the basics of investing including how to invest, when to invest, and why to invest. Every stock investment option available is presented at this stock market newsletter’s website.
What Do Subscribers Think?
Judging from the looks of it, Motley Fool is one of the most loved online stock market newsletters, if for nothing other than their fun attitude toward trading. Motley Fool receives a 4 out of 5 star rating by its users with many of them expressing their joy over finally being able to understand the complex world of stock trading. One testament after another tells about their excellent performance. Just take a look at some of these quotes:
• “Reassuring and welcoming to the first-timer!”
• “If you know a company’s stock symbol, there’s very little reason you’ll ever have to leave the Fool to do research. You can find balance sheets, cash flow and income statements, and Security and Exchange Commission filings, as well as recent news.”
• “The Fool is about educating people in how to properly manage their whole financial lives, not just stocks.”
• “Here’s the Motley Fools (good) advice in a nutshell – 1.Save money. 2.Avoid taxes. 3.Look out for fees. 4.Don’t try to beat the market, since you probably can’t.”
It looks like that of all the stock market newsletters out there, Motley Fool may be the best place for investors new to the world of stock trading who also want to take hold of the rest of their financial situation.
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At The Motley Fool Australia, our purpose is to help Australians invest — better.
We do this through our free website, Fool. com. au. chock full of ‘Motley’ investing news and commentary, and through our free email newsletter, Take Stock . as well as our subscription-based Motley Fool Share Advisor, Motley Fool Dividend Investor . Motley Fool Hidden Gems, Million Dollar Portfolio and Motley Fool Pro services.
Our focus isn’t on the world’s billionaires… though we’re of course fans of Warren Buffett’s investment style and philosophy!
Instead, we’re entirely focussed on helping ‘Mum and Dad’ Australian investors — everyday people who are investing in shares to secure their long-term financial futures. We champion shareholder values and advocate tirelessly for the individual Australian investor.
Looking for ASX investment ideas? You’re in the right place!
Just like you, we are patient, business-focussed investors. Every day, we’re combing the ASX for the very best opportunities for individual investors – and helping them to build their wealth over time with great investment ideas.
Whether it’s fully franked dividend-paying shares, value investing plays, or fast growers we believe may be the market leaders of tomorrow, The Motley Fool Australia is on the lookout, and constantly sharing our unique stock market insights with you.
You can get to know our Foolish style and investment philosophy now with Take Stock . our free email newsletter. Every week, you’ll receive ASX ideas and high quality, share market commentary… all for FREE.
No matter whether you’re just getting started with ASX investing, or you’ve already retired with a sizable portfolio and are looking to protect your gains, we trust you’ll find Take Stock amusing and insightful.
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The Motley Fool Australia offers four subscription-based stock investment services.
Motley Fool Share Advisor offers members one ‘best of the best’ ASX investment recommendations each month, as well as one U. S. stock idea. Since inception in December 2011, our Motley Fool Share Advisor picks have soundly outperformed the All Ords index. Interested in joining? You can sign up with a risk-free membership, including our 30-day full money-back guarantee.
Motley Fool Dividend Investor is a collection of investment ideas that specialises in ASX dividend paying stocks. Launched in October 2017, our Motley Fool Dividend Investor service focuses on selecting great businesses with regular, reliable, and rising dividend payments.
Motley Fool Hidden Gems is our ASX-only, small cap investment service. If you’re looking for growth – and don’t mind a little volatility – Motley Fool Hidden Gems could be right for you. This service is only periodically open to new members, and we maintain a strict membership cap. (Announcements are made as and when the service opens to new members.)
Motley Fool Million Dollar Portfolio is designed to integrate with our existing ideas services. It’s a real-money diversified portfolio comprised solely of ASX-only shares from Motley Fool Share Advisor . income stocks from Motley Fool Dividend Investor and growth stocks from our small cap service, Motley Fool Hidden Gems .
Motley Fool Pro is our ASX-only, real money portfolio. This service teaches you how to construct and build a diverse portfolio, from the very start. The Motley Fool will use $1million of it’s own money to invest in the ASX. We don’t manage your money, you simply follow our guidance trade for trade, with funds in your own trading account.
Say “G’day” to our Motley Fool Australia team
Below, you’ll meet our Motley Fool Australia team. You may have already “met” investment advisor Scott Phillips through his frequent television appearances and articles in The Sydney Morning Herald and elsewhere.
Bruce Jackson is the General Manager of Motley Fool Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 146 988 052, ABN 83 146 988 052, AFSL 400691).
Way back in 1997, Bruce, a native Australian, co-founded The Motley Fool UK. From modest beginnings, firstly as Managing Editor and then as Managing Director, Bruce built up the business into one of the most successful recognised brand names in the UK financial sector.
After 18+ years living and working in London, at the end of 2006, Bruce decided to relocate back to Australia in a desperate attempt to reacquaint himself and introduce his young family to the concept of sunshine.
Bruce has a Bachelor of Business (Accounting) degree and a Diploma of Financial Services (Financial Markets), and before co-founding The Motley Fool UK, he was a Finance Manager at the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC).
In his years with The Motley Fool, Bruce has written thousands of articles and pieces of content for the websites, and in 1999 also co-authored the best selling The Motley Fool UK Investment Workbook (if you’re looking at photo, he’s on the left. The goatee has now well and truly gone!).
In 2011, Bruce started The Motley Fool Australia. Despite all those years living in London, he still has an Aussie accent, and still supports Australia in The Ashes.
Scott Phillips is an Investment Advisor with The Motley Fool Australia as co-advisor of our flagship investment service, Motley Fool Share Advisor . and small-cap focussed service, Motley Fool Hidden Gems . He is passionate about investing, having managed his own portfolio for over 15 years. A dyed-in-the-wool Fool (in the best way), he has been a member of The Motley Fool since 1999. Scott holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Management) and is currently completing his MBA.
Before joining the Fool, Scott worked in various sales and finance roles in industry, which has allowed him to see the good, bad and the ugly of corporate management close-up. Giving him a great understanding of the way businesses run – and what separates the business wheat from the chaff – Scott wholeheartedly agrees with Warren Buffett when he said he is a ‘better investor because I am a businessman and a better businessman because I am an investor’.
Scott left a successful career to follow his passion – investing and helping others invest better. It’s no surprise he ended up as an Investment Advisor at The Motley Fool Australia. You can find his Motley Fool profile here .
Joe Magyer, CFA is the Director of Research at The Motley Fool Australia, Advisor of Motley Fool Pro . and Chairman of U. S.-based Motley Fool Inside Value. He is also a regular contributor to Fool. com, Fool. com. au, and The Motley Fool’s popular Market Foolery podcast and Motley Fool Money radio show. Joe is a sought-after expert who has been interviewed by the likes of ABC’s Good Morning America . CNBC, and The Washington Post . His U. S. service, Inside Value . has been repeatedly recognized by MarketWatch as one of America’s best-performing investment newsletters.
Prior to leading Inside Value and making the leap to Sydney, Joe served as a senior analyst for U. S.-based Motley Fool Special Ops and Motley Fool Income Investor . Before that he oversaw the Fool’s analysis and coverage of the energy, metals, and telecom sectors after joining the Fool back in 2007. In a previous life, Joe worked as a research analyst at a boutique investment bank and earned a B. B.A. from the University of Georgia and an M. S. in finance from Georgia State University. He is also a CFA charter holder. You can see his Fool profile here .
Andrew Page is the Lead Advisor on Motley Fool Dividend Investor and contributes to Motley Fool Share Advisor and Motley Fool Hidden Gems .
He has worked in the financial markets for over 14 years, representing a number of high profile organisations. With a strong focus on investor education, Andrew has delivered hundreds of presentations in both Australia and the US. He is also a regular guest on the Sky Business channel, where he appears as a guest host on the “Your Money, Your Call” and “Lunch Money” programs.
In a former life, Andrew completed an Honours degree in Microbiology and also established and operated his own business. Both experiences helped him become a better investor: The former having nurtured a sceptical, evidenced-based approach, the latter helping to augment theory with practice.
Andrew champions a long-term, value-oriented approach to investing, and believes success is more about time in the market than timing the market. With the majority of his personal wealth in shares, Andrew is a firm believer in practicing what you preach and hopes to lead by example. You can find his Motley Fool profile here .
Matt Joass, CFA is the Portfolio Manager of Million Dollar Portfolio and a senior contributor to Motley Fool Pro . A Kiwi with a passion for value investing, Matt has managed his own portfolio for the last 10 years. He joins the Motley Fool team from chilly Copenhagen, where he had been working as a financial analyst in the headquarters of an international shipping giant.
Matt is a big supporter of investor education and during his time in Denmark he co-founded the Copenhagen Investment Club, a fortnightly meeting of likeminded value investors. He believes that the best asset of an individual investor is a long-term focus and he is always keen to take part in an open-minded valuation debate.
Matt has also worked for a fast-growing telecommunications company in New Zealand and has trained in New York and India through a graduate development program. He holds an Honours degree in International Business from the University of Auckland. He is a CFA charter holder and has also recently started the CPA Australia program. When not working or studying, Matt loves to get outdoors and is an avid sailor. You can find his Motley Fool profile here.
Mike King is a Fool. com. au Investment Analyst and Writer. He caught the investing bug more than a decade ago, at a time when the U. S. had invaded Iraq and fear reigned in the markets. His initial success as the markets took off encouraged his passion and thirst for knowledge.
With 13 years behind him at one of Australia’s largest domestic banks, Mike’s passion for stocks led him to join a boutique funds management firm, where he stayed for four years. A seven-year stint in the equity research unit at one of the largest investment banks in the world followed that, giving Mike a thirst to pursue his passion further.
Mike holds a Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment and a Graduate Certificate in Financial Planning. His passion is to help retail investors invest better, and that passion was one of his primary reasons for joining The Motley Fool Australia in late 2011. Mike has written thousands of articles since joining, including for Fairfax Media, Yahoo!7, Ninemsn and has also appeared on ABC’s The Business.
You can see Mike’s profile and all his current stock holdings here .
Catherine Baab-Muguira is a Fool. com. au Investment Analyst and Writer. A Fool since 2010, she comes at investing by way of being a compulsive reader and has a keen eye for detail from years of working as a freelance journalist. In 2012, she joined The Motley Fool’s Analyst Development Program to pursue her love of investing full time, and worked as an analyst on one of The Motley Fool’s U. S. services before heading down to Australia. She enjoys contributing to Fool. com. au, Fool. com and DailyFinance. com, has written about stocks for The Sydney Morning Herald and other Fairfax publications, and manages her family’s stock portfolio.
A graduate of the University of South Carolina and the University of Auckland, she has lived all over the world, including year-long stints in Singapore and New Zealand. (Hence her great love for nyonya laksa and the All Blacks.) We’ll forgive her that last one! You can find her Motley Fool profile here .
Claude Walker joined the The Motley Fool as a Research Analyst in October 2017, but that wasn’t the first time our members have heard from him — prior to joining the team, he was a freelance contributor to Fool. com. au for over a year.
Claude’s passion for understanding markets intersects with his interest in long term sociological trends to inform a thematic approach to investing. On a company specific level, Claude prefers a Warren Buffett-inspired approach of favouring companies that can already boast, or are currently developing a sustainable competitive advantage. He looks for management teams with the capital allocation skills to complement operational expertise.
Prior to joining the Motley Fool, Claude worked for two different solar energy companies and graduated from the Australian National University with a Bachelor of Arts/Law (First Class Honours). More recently, he started an investing blog called Ethical Equities and assisted a boutique investment company with stock analysis.
Claude’s appreciation for culture and nature have lead him to travel around the world twice (in different directions), and continue to fuel an inclination to explore new places — but even when he is appreciating culture and nature, he can’t help thinking about the next great investment idea.
Our U. S. parent company
Founded in the U. S. in 1993 by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world’s greatest investment community. The company’s name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king — without getting their heads lopped off.
Despite our quirky name, we are a proper, grown-up company. Headed by CEO & Co-Chairman Tom Gardner and Co-Founder & Co-Chairman David Gardner, The Motley Fool has a deep and experienced executive management team. and board of directors .
Today, we at The Motley Fool Australia are proud to bring Foolishness to Australia.
Along with our U. S. parent company, we reach millions of people each month through our websites, emails, books, newspaper columns, television appearances and investment services.
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You can contact our member services team with questions and enquiries at membersupportau@fool. com. au
A couple of years ago I read the Motley fool regularly. I liked the philosophy, the articles were informative, the discussion forums were lively and interesting.
Somewhere along the way I lost interest. I don’t even remember what it was exactly that turned me off. I vaguely remember it having something to do with the amount of advertising. It may have been the shift to paid subscriptions in 2001. There wasn’t a specific incident as far as I can recall, I just lost interest.
Even though I don’t visit the site I’ve always held the view that they were a high quality operation. I assumed that when it came to financial hogwash they’d be on the side of debunking it and protecting consumers, rather than propogating it.
That’s why when I received what I assumed was a spam email promoting a get rich quick scheme, I was surprised to see that it came from The Motley Fool.
Now, I know that spammers aren’t above spoofing someone else’s identity to hide their own. Spammers have in the past sent spam claiming to come from some of my own domains, so I looked into this, thinking perhaps the Motley Fool might like a heads up that this financial nonsense was claming to come from them.
I was floored to find this wasn’t a spammer spoofing an address. The product being peddled actually was from The Motley Fool. So ended any chance that I would ever return to the site.
First a little history. When the dot com bubble popped in 2001 The Motley Fool realised that they weren’t going to be able to collect the kinds of revenues from advertising that they had previously. They switched to a model of selling (subscriptions, reports, newsletters etc) to it’s members.
Nothing wrong with that, it’s worked out very well for them, and I’m sure many of the products they sell are fine. The one they advertised to me through my mailbox was not fine however. It had all the hallmarks of a scam.
Here are some of the characteristics you expect to find in junk email promoting get rich quick schemes.
1. They tend to be very long. These emails don’t stop at telling you about the great idea. They tell you about it over and over and over. Very repetitive, numerous quotes endorsing the scheme etc.
The Motley Fool email is long. Very Long. It takes 25 seconds just to scroll down through it without pausing to read any of it.
2. They emphasis what you could have won. The biggest sign of a get rich quick scheme that you should run from is that it dwells a lot on past successes, and tries to convince you that they could have been predicted in advance.
The Motley Fool email has numerous examples of people who turned thousands of dollars into millions of dollars. The message is clear, we could have predicted the success of these people and we can do it again.
The mail also hammers home the idea that it is giving you the insider scoop on the next Starbucks. It talks at length about the phenomenal growth of Starbucks, how it could have been predicted, and how much you could have made if you had invested.
This is the oldest trick in the financial charletain’s arsenal, don’t fall for it.
3. They emphasise they this isn’t a get rich quick scam. I’ve never read about a get rich quick scam that didn’t point out that it was not a get rich quick scam. In fact I’ve gotten to the point now that when someone explains that their system isn’t a scam I assume that it is.
The following comes from The Motley Fool email:
I’m not a starry-eyed novice pitching some bogus money-making “system.” I’ve done my homework, and I know a rat when I smell one. Like you, I have a reputation to protect, and I’m not easily duped.
“The Motley Fool stands out as an ethical oasis in an area that is fast becoming a home to charlatans.” & # 8212; The Economist
4. They stress what you’ll be getting for free, and gloss over the fact that you have to pay for it.
Throughout the Motley Fool Email there is much talk of the free report that you can receive that will reveal the next Starbucks. There are 17 mentions of this famous “Free” report.
Do you know how many mentions there are of the $199 subscription that you have to take out? Ninguna. Not one. Despite the incredible length of this email, they couldn’t find anywhere to squeeze in the fact that the report is “Free” with a $199 per year subscription to a Newsletter.
Towards the end of the email they do tell you that you need to subscribe, but you have to visit their site to find out the “Low Price”.
5. The Money Back Guarentee. The trial period scam has been around for years. Sign up for a subscription and receive a free gift. The honest version of this scam assumes that some of the people who don’t want the subscription will be too lazy or will will simply forget to cancel within the trial period.
The dishonest version makes it as difficult as possible to cancel, or in some cases continues to “accidently” charge the customer even after they’ve cancelled.
I’m going to assume that The Fool are taking the honest approach and hoping for customer inertia to deliver them subscriptions.
I’m being generaous by giving them the benefit of the doubt here, the rest of the mail has all the signs of dishonesty that I’d expect from the worst scam artists. If it was a lesser known website I’d be 100% convinced that they’d take the money and run.
Yes, you’re not imagining it, there’s the unmistakable stench of a scam eminating from this scheme.
I have to say I was completely taken aback by this email. I’m still baffled that a brand with a reputation for straight talking and honesty would get involved in this kind of thing. I guess when you go down the road of selling financial information it takes a certain amount of character to avoid falling into the trap of peddling crap at high prices.
Needless to say my respect for The Fool is gone.
I just started getting these “scam” messages from them a month or so ago, and I felt the same way. Thanks for the post.
I’m a TMF subscriber and have done the “free trial” several times. Without commenting on your view of these mails as “get-rich-quick”, I will just point out that TMF are 100% good about returning your money from the free trial. The subscription is canceled and the money paid back (to my credit card) within one business day of mailing them about it. Some months I didn’t even pay the money since it was back in my cc account before the monthly bill was due.
love the irony of the fact that google ads places the motley fool ad prominently right under your blog breaking them down.
You know what’s even more hilarious is that they have a good article on there sight about 10 signs of an investment scam and I think there spam mail contains just about all of them.
I started reading their articles recently and was impressed with what seemed like honest straight forward talk. However after giving them my email address and now receiving those spam scam mails almost daily, they have totally ruined their credibility in my eyes.
And the phone calls. Motley Foll sells your personal information. Made the mistake of giving them my home number. “Investor’s Business Daily” called like 50 times
Over 1 year ago, I was stupid enough to pay $100 for a year of Motley Fool subscriptions. Silly me. After about 6 months I concluded it was worthless, and stopped reading anything from them.
Well, this morning, I checked my credit card account, and say a $149.00 charge from Motley. Interesting. My only guess is that they automatically rolled me over from my prevrious account, without my permission or authorization.
The worst part is, my credit card # has changed within the past year. So somehow they went out and found my new credit card.
Very shady company. I echo the previous poster…
Yeah I have observerd this same thing for a few years with them. Even after requesting being removed from their lists in early 2006 I continue to get 4-5 emails a week. 4×52 = 208 per year. x 4 years = aprox. 832 emails since i requested to be removed. Reminds me of Calrton Sheets or Dean Graziosi. I think they make there millions from selling worthless subscriptions to suckers rather than good investments. If they were so rich from good investments why not give the info for free? How much money do you need if your shrewd investments have already made you a multi-multi millionaire? Far from a Buffet are these Brothers Scam… If it were that easy everyone would be rich from the Motley Fools advice. The only “Fools” are those that pay ridiculous amounts of money for non informative reports and lists. Try putting that money into some stocks instead. Pay your dues. Go to Borders and get “The intelligent investor”, an “Idiots Guide” or “For Dummies” & # 8230; start reading and investing – in short educate yourself, quit hoping for someone else to do the work for you, and pay your dues. So typical of predatory practice appealing to lazy people that only fantasize about wealth. By the way the stock market is only one of many ways to create wealth. Find your passion and pursue that…. Expect it to take 10 years plus and some heartache along the way. If it comes faster adn easier (truly) then consider yourself fortunate and be thankful…
& # 8221; By the way the stock market is only one of many ways to create wealth. Find your passion and pursue that…. Expect it to take 10 years plus and some heartache along the way. If it comes faster adn easier (truly) then consider yourself fortunate and be thankful…”
I agree with this. Great piece of advice.
One last comment. The positive “references” and “endorsements” are anecdotal at best. If you sell enough subscriptions you are bound to have some people succeed with the vast amount of “possible” good investments they recommend. They dont post the emails with “I lost all my money thanks to your advice.”
Last comment. I havent thought about or looked at the Motley Fool for a few years (except to delete their spam) until coming across this blog. Just went to the site to see how their realtime performance is compared to the S&P. They used to post it REALLY big for all to see on their home page. Mysteriously there is now no trace. Couldnt find it anywhere on the site. Except a claim of 51% outperforming above their subscriptions page. How can we confirm that. Could it be they have fallen behind the S&P? I would bet so… Disgusting those two scam artists make me want to puke. Hiding under the guise of righteous investors looking to help the average Joe… they should be in prison with Madoff…
Ya i used to be a big fool fan but some of thier new emails are just rediculous.
Thanks guys. I am a novice and was almost hooked by these crooks. There was something in me that just couldn’t allow me to give them my credit card information. I smell a rat because they kept saying that they knew a rat when they saw one. Usually it’s the rat that is calling the other a rat. So, I found my way to this page and verified my supicion with the testimony of other like minds. Gracias
I am a member of the Motley Fool’s Stock Advisor (SA) and Million Dollar Portfolio (MDP). I can tell you that these are both legitimate services that I have gotten great value out of. My stocks based off of the SA picks have beaten the S&P by 30%, but the MDP was created just before the huge market downturn. The MDP portfolio was down about 40% or so at one point as was the market in general, but it’s risen back up -21.1% which is 3.9% higher than the S&P at -25%.
They run a legitimate value added service, with good customer service (I’ve been happy), with super annoying marketing.
It’s a far stretch to call them a scam just because their marketing is aggravating. But guess what? It works on most and aggravates some. Seems like good ROI.
You sir are a shrill dude, a simple shrill!
Grrrr….-21.1% is NOT 3.9% higher than -25%, that is NOT how percentages work….maybe it’s best that you use a service like TMF bc you clearly don’t understand numbers….-21.1% is a 15.6% increase from -25%….you could have said that it is 3.9 points higher or 390 basis points above, but not that it’s 3.9% higher….it boggles my mind how many ppl screw up this simple concept….believe it or not, I actually had to explain this to my Finance manager – multiple times. & # 8211; at a previous company….at one point I literally had to show him the math on a whiteboard before it finally sank in….this is why you have to be very wary of claims that something beat an index by 50%….it sounds great and huge, right? Which is better, going from 2% to 3% or going from 25% to 30%. One is a 50% increase and the other is a 20% increase….in my example, I’ll take the 20% increase all day everyday…
OK, I’ll step off my soapbox now.
I’m happy with their service, except the spamming of my inbox with so many articles. But that can be avoided by changing the info on your profile page, or calling their customer service and asking to remove your profile. When you signed in for the first time, you probably don’t remember that you answered many questions and checked boxes agreeing to receive free information. By following their advice in MF Pro service, Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers, my portfolio has increased by 50% since October 2008 (after broker commissions had been payed). I understand that the articles are written for the purpose of selling more services to me. But by the same token, I got all my subscriptions below the going price, thanks to promotions contained at the end of those articles. If you cancel the newsletter subscription, they promptly refund your money. The customer service is very good and prompt. The discussion boards are informative and people responsible for specific newsletter chime in regularly to resolve or clarify issues.
I’m up 70% without TMF. I took some risks but overall the market has moved up rapidly. Vesta, I don’t think I’d give TMF too much credit.
Oh, and two of my top performers were stocks that TMF said would tank in early 2008 (PSEC & HTE).
TMF indeed appear Foolish.
LoL – PSEC is down big time since early 2008…on Feb 1 2008 it was at $14.96; on March 12th 2010 (your comment is dated Mar 11th) it closed at $12.52 – that’s a 16.3% decrease..you would have had to buy at the bottom (meaning you got EXTREMELY lucky) on Mar 6, 2009 – when it closed at $6.58 to get the kind of returns you’re talking about especially if it were one of your best performers…you also mentioned that TMF said it would tank, so did TMF put it on your radar and then you started following it, liked the story – despite TMF’s advice – and start buying in? Then buying on the dips as it cratered in 2009?
As for HTE, it’s not even listed anymore – LoL…unless your talking about the Hungarian Traded Index that is traded in Euros – which I doubt.
I hope that you’ve made better investments since you posted this rubbish back in 2010.
And no, I’m not a fan of TMF. I subscribed to their options service back in 2008-2010 timeframe….I lost money, but I learned some valuable strategies that I still use today. I don’t subscribe to any of their services. Personally, I think they’re not very different from any other stock picking service. They got lucky on a few and parlayed that into a business that doesn’t require them to be very accurate bc they’re making money off subscriptions. Had a buddy do their Million Dollar Portfolio and from what I could tell, the companies are all “blue chips” and dividend aristocrats.
& Gt; It’s a far stretch to call them a scam just because their > marketing is aggravating. But guess what? It works on most > and aggravates some. Seems like good ROI.
Hi Klok, Thanks for the comment.
I won’t speak about every Motley Fool product. As I say at the outset I held them in high regard. I’m sure they have some good products and services. It would be quite a fall from grace if they had none.
However, for all the reasons I’ve outlined in detail above, I maintain that the email I received was a scam. The product it advertises is a scam.
If it isn’t a scam then the Motley Fool are free to advertise it in a more honest way. Until then I call scam.
One thing I noted about your “rant” is that you FAILED to mention which service they were advertising. As a one time member of their Hidden Gems subscription and a current member of Income Investor & Options, I would say that their advice is definitely not a scam. They do post their returns vs the S&P, but they do so with each individual service, as it seems like it would be very difficult to measure all of their services combined into one. I will say that it is a service that provides research, but any investor that doesn’t do their own independent follow up research deserves whatever they happen to get. My experience with their services has been very good and I have made the cost of my subscription back several times over. Are all of their “picks” winners? Of course not, nobody is THAT good, not even Buffet. Is it a scam, I would say not in my experience. I would encourage anybody that is thinking about subscribing to one of their services to do their research and make sure that what they are signing up for is in line w/their investment goals otherwise you are not going to be happy with the service. This is one thing that is often overlooked in investing, there are quite a few investment strategies & you have to pair your personal investment style and goals with that of the service you are subscribing too.
& Gt; One thing I noted about your “rant” is that you FAILED to mention which service > they were advertising.
No. I included their original email IN FULL. If you can’t tell what they are advertising based on that email then that’s further evidence of what I’m talking about.
The rest of what you say is Mom and Apple pie. Of course an investor shouldn’t rely on stock tips without doing their own research etc. My post has nothing at all to do with that.
I’m pointing out that The Motley Fool are either going down the route of the most basic scam emails that litter the internet, OR they have gone to extraordinary lenghts to disguise a legitimate product as a scam.
If it’s the latter then they are clearly insane and not the kind of people anyone should be taking seriously.
Also, even the worst internet scam will by the law of probability produce gains for some people. The more widely adopted the scam the more individuals you can find who have seen it work.
That in itself is no evidence that the scheme works.
Unless it can be demonstrated that a stock picking scheme consistantly beats throwing darts at the market pages then individual success stories are little more than statistical outliers.
If the Motley Fool have legitimate products, there is nothing to stop them advertising them in a legitimate way and backing up their claims with evidence.
That they CHOOSE to go the route of the snakeoil salesman speaks volumes.
I have been a regular Fool reader since about 1998, and I must say that there is probably no other institution that has a financial interest in catching your interest, that I would trust more. Sure, they send advertising mail, but you can spot it by its length withing a couple of seconds and decide niot to read it. I usually do a quick search for “£” or “$” to see what they’re selling. Alternatively, you can massage your profile to opt out of a lot of the advertising mail. And sure, they don’t predict stocks with 100% accuracy – sometimes they will do better than others, and sometimes, other advisories, individuals, dice or flipped coins will do better, but they are concientious in their stock-picking, and always give their reasons, disclosing what they know about the company and its directorship; they are reasonable in their advisory charges, immediate in repaying unused parts of a subscription if you decide to leave, and utterly transparent in their dealings with their followers.
This is an organisation that has dedicated itself to an interest in stocks, so naturally, over the last 20 years or so, they have built up a certain expertise in it. Isn’t it reasonable that they seek to sell their expertise?
I bought their last advisory – not just information they were selling, but a full disclosure of a £50,000 investment that they, themselves had made, giving reasons for each stock purchase, and showing the growth of the investment over time, with all accountancy shown. In fact, though I paid for the subscription, I never bought any stock, and for a lot of the year, it was in negative profit, though it has recently come up to a bit more than 3% profit. About half of the original fund is invested, and the profit stated is on the entire fund.
Just my 2p. I don’t think they’re all things to all men, but I certainly think they are above-board, and trustworthy to a degree that few financial institutions are.
I read this article some time ago, it’s about “Cloud Computing” if it wasn’t contained in the text. Anyone worked out exactly which one of the computing companies is ahead of Microsoft and Google on this one? Tom Hegarty
The Motley Fool Site provides quite a bit of useful information, One just has to bear in mind that it is a business. Sites are expensive to run - something has to pay the bills – So as we yankees say Just sit on your wallet
>The Motley Fool Site provides quite a bit of useful information, >One just has to bear in mind that it is a business. Sites are >expensive to run - something has to pay the bills – So as we >yankees say Just sit on your wallet
Thanks for the comment, and yes, voting with your feet is always an option. But I don’t think we should be so quick to let this go and hope everyone else votes with their feet too.
TMF set it self up as some sort of honest no nonsense website. Then it takes this approach. It just isn’t good enough.
Think of it this way. If a well known site like TMF sends out these types of emails then it encourages people to think that other similar scam emails might be legit.
“Hmmm, this email about getting rich quick sounds too good to be true, but It’s just like that mail from TMF, so maybe it’s ok.”
It would be the equivalent of your bank sending out emails that look like phishing mails. We spend so long helping people to figure out what might be a scam on the internet, then legitimate companies muddy the water by impersonating the scams. It’s not good enough.
The Motley Fool would be the first to warn users about financial charletains and mumbo jumbo. That’s all I’m doing too.
I use to be a Fool Subscriber but dropped the service several years ago. Recently, I decided to look at the Brother’s original portfolio that they supposedly funded with $50K of their own money (1994) and eventually the original portfolio name was changed to The Rule Breaker portfolio. I have tried finding the current value and what sort of return this portfolio has brought over the last 16 years in it’s existence. Does anyone know?
I registered their 1 month free advise subscription yesterday. And they seem to be pretty detailed and open ended as all their bets are listed from 2002, and you can see even loss making positions.
Their advertisements are scary and I used to delete without reading for many years.
But for a invester like me who has no proper access to information and wants to make better than share market or say take a chance this is the cheapest proposition.
I suggest you should give it a try before branding them frauds.
Must admit having followed the Fool for a couple of years at least I have noticed this shift to endlessly long emails selling stuff. They do seem suspiciously like scams I have received else where. Must admit did email one of their people who was helpful but he basically confirmed my concerns that in order to make a real profit you either have to invest an awful lot or have big returns to cover the initial joining fees, share deal costs etc.
I am a subscriber to TMF Stock Adviser and Global Gains. I think what you get with the Fool is a mixture of legitimate advice in a more or less “Value” service, but then they try to market you into a lot of high priced “extras” which certainly look pretty suspect. The trick is to avoid all the hype and “extras.” But I agree with many here that you should not have to wade through a heap of rubbish in a service that is purporting to be a legitimate “value” investor service. So if you can select only the emails for the service you want, and avoid all the hyped up marketing, you will have a good service. You can check their actual performance on the Hulbert Financial Digest list which ranks most newsletters. Does anyone know what that ranking might be?
If one is naive enough to believe that someone in this world will share with others information or insights that will make millions and millions, on average, for him or her, he should take advice from these stock pickets.
Yes, there is advertising and marketing by the Motley Fool. But, you’re getting legitimate information and useful advice. I’m sure The Motley Fool would love to give all the information regarding Stock Advisor, Value Investor, and other newsletter publications free. But, that information is coming from dedicated, knowledgeable professionals, from a bricks and mortar headquarters and quite simply there is signficant overhead to provide such products and services. The Motley Fool is not going to mislead anyone. There is risk in investing in equities and you can lose money. They have no crystal ball and maintain disclaimers the same as any other stock advice service. What The Motley Fool does is provide an extremely informative and invaluable website that is easy and fun to read. Yeah, a buy-and-hold philosophy may seem boring. I thought so too, until I saw my small investment 10 years ago, return 70X. Sometimes, simplicity sounds so skeptical, when we may believe that making a pile of money must be based on derivatives or some other complicated scheme. How, about buying into plain old solid companies with respectable dividends, then reinvesting those dividends, which Motley Fool mentions over and over again. Motley Fools is probably one on the most legitimate investing websites in the world. We are lucky that the Gardners created such a useful website on the world oif equities investing, with a wonderful injection of humor to make it fun to read. ‘
Had credit card in had and was going to purchase th online rule breakers for $149(initial year offer) with all the extra free books(3kings…), then thought I should check out the web reviews. You guys have really got me confused. Have a friend who has subscribed the TMF for years, and swears by it, but the above certainly has given me reason to be sceptical. Companies do change over the years and loose their focus, and perhaps that has happened here too? That being said, if one were to subscribe to one of their services, as a realtively caucious investor, which one would you choose?
I used to like the Motley Fool concept (crowd-sourcing for stock tips) and even bought their book in 2009. But I got totally turned off by all the spam ad mail because they never deliver what they promise. They tell you to click this or send for that and this will answer whatever question they set up.
At first, because I trusted them, I was sure they were going to (eventually) answer the question. (Tell me what trend they spotted or what company they mean, or whatever – like they promised.) But they just weaseled away and left me knowing nothing except that I wasted my time – and that I need to pay them money to find out what they said they’d tell me.
So then I stopped opening most of their ads, but for awhile I occasionally took a chance and – just to be fair – I would hang on til the very end in case they might actually deliver what they promised. But they never, ever did. So then when I couldn’t unsubscribe I just tagged Motley Fool as Junk Mail. I won’t go near this company again. If they’re so dishonest in their ads, why would they be honest once they get my money?
Here is my question, excuse me if I sound stupid:
What lead me to believe that they are a scam is that they are offering sure-fire ways to get rich, as rich as the people who invested in Microsoft, Google, and Apple; but here they are sending me email reports with subscriptions for a nominal fee. Why would one have to do this if their picks can easily make them multi-billionaires, as they are promising? Why is it necessary to go for the pocket change pandering to the humble middle-class demographic with stock reports?
Again, these are just questions, probably stupid questions; but I prefer to look stupid for five minutes asking a question rather than being stupid forever.
It’s called diversification ;)
I’ve also come to the conclusion that the Motley Fool is full of shit. I recently signed up for a paid subscription because I figured that it would be worth $5.00 per month to take a look behind the curtain. What I found was absolutely nothing that you can’t find by doing a bit of your own research for free.
Their list of stock picks are all fairly obvious and there is very little useful info to be found. As you explore the site, it becomes obvious that you were lured into the $5 subscription so that they can try to sell you their “Premium Advice”. When you click on one of the many “Premium Advice” options to try and see what it’s about, you’ll be greeted with a bogus message such as: “Due to the high level of interest, we are no longer accepting new members. If you would like to hear about future opportunities, please enter your email address in the box below.” I’m guessing that if you are foolish enough to enter your email address, then a new spot will magically open up and your card will start being charged immediately for this “Premium Advice”.
The barrage of emails is annoying, but made even worse by the ridiculously poor content and vague information. Yesterday and today I was subjected to their email campaign begging me to sign up for “Supernova”. If you don’t sign up, then the emails just keep coming, each warning you that it’s your “last chance”, or that there is “only 6 hours left”. They absolutely reek with desperation.
If you decide to watch one of their videos, then grab a beer and prepare for an unbearably long-winded show lacking absolutely any info of importance or interest for what feels like an eternity of complete bullshit.
I’m sure these guys are good at investing. Much better than I’ll ever be. I’m just saying that I thought their service just seemed misleading and has a feel of very low quality.
Furthermore, I now find it impossible to find anywhere on their site where I can cancel my subscription. Yet another scummy web technique when your service doesn’t stand on it’s own.
I would like to say you can believe what you want about the Motley Fool, all I know is I started following their investment advice several years ago rolled my money into an IRA account that I control invested my retirement myself into stocks they recommended like for example…..netflix when it was at a little over seven dollars a share and it skyrocketed to almost three hundred dollars a share. That investment alone not to mention their other recommendations have made me several millions. So keep believing what you want and I will keep profiting.
Thanx a million Motley Fool
I want to pay the subscription out of the money i make from their advice. If they do that I would subscribe forever. Sorry just another scam. Probably some good advice somewhere in there, but whatever.
Motley Fool is now interfering with my ability to browse articles on my ISP home page. All i get when I try to get to certain features is a Motley Fool ad that will not allow me to get to what I clicked on.
I tried to unsubscribe from MFs spam at least 5 times – they keep spamming. An unethical outfit!
I have been a subscriber to Motley fool since the late 1990’s. I have tried a few of their pay for investment letters. Hidden Gems, Global Gains, Motley Fool Pro, Million Dollar Portfolio and Stock Advisor. Some I have tried for a many years some for a few months. Now I am down to only Stock Advisor. For my money it is the best one they offer with the best returns. I like it, they offer good advice and I have profited from it. I don’t want to take the time to dig into financials of many different companies and try to figure out what the best stocks appear to be for the long term so I pay them to do that for me. I also don’t want to crawl under my car and change the oil and filter every 5,000 miles so I pay someone to do that for me. I have other things I would rather do. If you think you can do better with your own research picking companies to invest in and you like to do it then you should.
When I wanted to quit the other services I tried and decided were not for me I called them and told them I wanted to quit and they refunded me any amount I did not use. If I signed up for a year and called up 6 months later and said I wanted out they would refund me 6 months worth. If I signed up for a free trial and after 30 days decided I wasn’t interested they would refund me the full amount as promised. No haggling, no hard sell, no delay. Sure the marketing can be annoying and they should work on it to make it sound more professional. The cost should be in the advertisement as well.
But the advise I have received from them is sound. I have winners and losers but the winners have increased my portfolio far more than the losers have decreased it and I am beating the S&P 500. The stocks they recommend are companies they believe in staying invested in for at least 3 to 5 years unless something dramatic happens to make them change their mind. That’s their mindset and they tell you that over and over. Overall I have had a good experience. If you decide to try it just sign up for Stock Advisor and ignore the advertisements for the other services. And I just buy David’s recommendations because he has a much better track record than Tom and I prefer his philosophy.
I’ve been very impressed with the Motley Fool. By choosing stocks based on their advice, I have managed an average annual return of 18.4% since 2009 which has nicely beat the market. I rely on their research & Consejo. Sure, they send you marketing emails to try to get you to subscribe to some of the other newsletters that they offer – and some it is hokey. However, like any other successful company, it continues to grow its revenues by introducing new products and attempting to grow its sales. It’s what they do. However, you can update your account online to opt out of emails other than what you subscribe to and cut out all the marketing emails.
Bottom line, the newsletters are worth every penny. It’s no scam.
I worked for them. They are the biggest ass clowns you can imagine.
Hmmm is anyone else finding the the #IntelliJ Rest Client a little buggy since updating to 2017.1? 6 hours ago
One cool thing about learning more about programming languages is returning to this and getting more of the jokes. james-iry. blogspot. ie/2009/05/brief-… 14 hours ago
RT @hhariri. @simonbrown @royvanrijn I'd say the same as I said 7 years ago. hadihariri. com/2009/11/20/var… 16 hours ago
RT @MarkXA. Ah FFS. Just use var and move on. If explicit declarations are "more readable" it's the rest of the code that needs tidying up. 16 hours ago
RT @RichRogersHDS. 7 Traits of Extraordinary Bosses: Simplicity Fairness Humility Transparency Generosity Patience Honesty https://t. co/6… 16 hours ago
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What will 2017 bring to the Forex traders? Check out the ultimate live panel you must attend to understand and anticipate what the new year might hold. view full post »
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Historically, the FX market was offered most to significant financial institutions, rest individuals as well as international firms that sold huge purchase dimensions and also quantities. Small investors consisting of people like you and also I, had little accessibility to this market for such a long period of time. Currently with the introduction of the […]
Have you ever asked yourself what is the Forex market? The FOREX or Foreign Exchange market is the biggest monetary market around the world, with a quantity of even more compared to $1.5 trillion daily, dealing in currencies. Unlike other economic markets, the Forex market has no physical place, no main exchange. It operates through […]
Episode 16
Should you exchanged within the Foreign exchange market before or maybe you are still buying and selling now, you might have heard the word Forex broker lots of occasions. However, being an individual trader, you might want to know exactly what is a Forex broker and the things they’re doing. view full post »
Searching for the very best online Forex trading platforms? Well you will find most of the platforms to select from when choosing a Forex trading platform. The very best platforms generally offer American Dollars, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Pounds, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar and Yen. Additionally you won’t have any commission costs or transaction costs. […]
If you’re as confused when i was after i began buying and selling currency around the foreign currency (foreign exchange), than this short article is going to do miracles for you personally. From details around the foreign exchange towards the best online forex trading platform, the questions you have is going to be clarified. view […]
Local news
Motley Fool: Track record, stability boost Capital One
It may seem like you’ve arrived too late to profit from stocks trading near their 52-week highs, but that’s not always the case. Consider Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), the successful consumer and commercial banking franchise with a strong market position in credit cards, auto loans and …
It may seem like you’ve arrived too late to profit from stocks trading near their 52-week highs, but that’s not always the case. Consider Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), the successful consumer and commercial banking franchise with a strong market position in credit cards, auto loans and home loans.
Capital One has a convincing track record in growing its core business segments and has become the 13th-largest domestic bank in terms of total assets. Thanks to cyclical tailwinds generated by higher consumer spending, Capital One’s business segments should experience significantly higher demand, which should translate into higher share prices.
Indeed, in May the bank reported its first uptick in domestic credit card loan growth in almost a year. (A recent study by CardHub ranked Capital One first in offering cards with the fewest limitations on their rewards.)
Capital One is resilient. During the financial crisis, its losses were small and it exceeded 2006 profitability levels as early as 2010. Thanks to its strong balance sheet, the bank plans to funnel back substantial amounts of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share buybacks.
Capital One is worth considering for your portfolio. Its recent P/E ratio of 11.6 is below its five-year average of 14.1, and it offers a 1.4 percent dividend yield. (The Motley Fool owns shares of Capital One Financial.)
Q: What does it mean when a company is said to have a moat? Surely it isn’t headquartered in a castle, right? – G. L. Milwaukee
A: Well, think of a company as being an imaginary castle. If it has a wide moat, it will be well defended, making it hard for any enemies to attack it. In business jargon, an economic moat refers to sustainable competitive advantages that a company may have that protect its market position and defend against competitors or would-be competitors.
Examples include brand power, switching costs, patents, economies of scale and barriers to entry. It’s hard for upstarts to compete against a powerful brand, and hard for any company to enter certain industries where start-up costs are steep (think airplane manufacturing, for example). Switching costs can keep many customers from changing to a different cellphone carrier or platform.
Q: I noticed recently that trading in General Motors stock was “halted” for some reason. What’s halting all about? – B. W. Pensacola, Florida
A: Trading halts are called when a company is about to announce some big news or when there’s a big order imbalance that needs to be corrected. Trading was halted for General Motors because there was “news pending” – the company announced a big new round of recalls (7.6 million vehicles) and a big increase in the cost it expects to incur repairing the recalled vehicles. Trading was halted for about half an hour. The stock had been up by less than 1 percent before the halt, and when trading resumed it was down more than 1 percent.
Trading was halted in GM’s stock so that no one would be buying or selling shares without the benefit of the new information.
My dumbest investment
I bought shares of Netflix at $10 per share. I watched it get to the high $50s and then swoon, falling to the mid-$40s. I decided to get some income from the stock, so I sold a call option on it with a $60 strike price, so that whoever bought the option could buy my shares for $60 during a certain period.
Well, that was dumb. Netflix moved past $60 so quickly that it made me dizzy. I got my $60 per share, but I missed so much more. Lesson: Ride your big winner the few times you have one and use trailing stops to lock in profits. – J. M.L. San Diego
The Fool responds: You’re right; with Netflix shares recently surpassing $470 per share, you missed a bundle. It might help to think about each of your holdings and jot down why you’re holding it – say, for income or for growth. And be careful with trailing stop-loss orders, which instruct your broker to sell if the stock falls by a certain amount. They could eject you from the stock prematurely, due to temporary volatility.
Published: July 20, 2017, midnight
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Micro and nanorobots that attack tumors with maximum precision using drugs: this is what the fight against cancer may look like in the future. A group of ETH researchers led by Salvador Pané are laying the foundations with magnetoelectric-controlled Janus machines.
Large-scale changes to agricultural practices will be required to meet the goal of reducing levels of algae-promoting phosphorus in Lake Erie by 40 percent, a new University of Michigan-led, multi-institution computer modeling study concludes.
New research from The Wistar Institute demonstrated that dozens of these targeted therapies suppressed the activity of T cells that could actually help fight tumors. While studying the FDA-approved targeted therapy trametinib, the researchers also found that pairing it with a signaling protein "superagonist" stimulated T cell activity while preserving the cancer-blocking effects of the cancer treatment.
The research group of Professor Hideo Ohno and Associate Professor Shunsuke Fukami of Tohoku University has developed a new-structure magnetic memory device utilizing spin-orbit - torque-induced magnetization switching.
In previous research, it was suggested that adaptation of an animal to different factors looks like spending of one resource and that the animal dies when this resource is exhausted. In 1938, Hans Selye introduced "adaptation energy" and found strong experimental arguments in favour of this hypothesis. However, this term has caused much debate because, as it cannot be measured as a physical quantity, adaptation energy is not strictly energy.
M1 LUMI(tm) Bead provides visible confirmation during embolization treatment for liver cancer
An international team used an amplification technique to sequence the genomes of two divergent Plasmodium malaria species from miniscule volumes of chimpanzee blood to find clues about the evolution and pathogenicity of Plasmodium falciparum, the deadliest malaria parasite that affects people. Understanding the origins of emerging diseases - and more established disease agents -- is critical to gauge future human infection risks and find new treatment and prevention approaches.
A University of Iowa economist is studying how obesity rates are affected in communities where restaurants publish the calorie counts of the food they serve, an effort that is part of a broader campaign to reduce the number of Americans who are overweight.
Breakthroughs and the latest research advances in women's health, endocrine-disrupting chemicals, diabetes, obesity and bone health will be showcased in a series of press conferences at ENDO 2017, the Endocrine Society's 98th Annual Meeting & Expo. The Society is celebrating its centennial at this year's meeting in Boston, MA.
Normally, cells are highly active and dynamic: in their liquid interior, called the cytoplasm, countless metabolic processes occur in parallel, proteins and particles jiggle around wildly. If, however, those cells do not get enough nutrients, their energy level drops. This leads to a marked decrease of the cytoplasmic pH – the cells acidify. In response, cells enter into a kind of standby mode, which enables them to survive. A team of researchers from Dresden, Germany, have found out that the cytoplasm of these seemingly dead cells changes its consistency from liquid to solid. Thereby, they protect the sensitive structures in the cellular interior.
Some species of plants are capable of colonising new habitats thanks to birds that transport their seeds in their plumage or digestive tract. Until recently, it was known that birds could do this over short distances, but a new study shows that they are also capable of dispersing them over more than 300 kilometres. For researchers, this function could be key in the face of climate change, allowing the survival of many species.
Similar-smelling chemical cues could explain why some animals choose to live together with other species, according to new research from scientists at the University of Lincoln, UK.
Motley Fool Income Investor
EconomГa Social Security: If you're married, here's what's changed
and you can read about themВ here on Fool. com. SPONSOR CONTENT: The world's most boring way to turn your retirement portfolio into a cash machineIf you could use more retirement income then you are going to want to pay attention. Although this gravy train is coming to a halt, there are fortunately many other ways to maximize your retirement income. One retired worker, upon reaching their full retirement age, files for Social Security benefits and then immediately suspends them.
In late 2017, the budget bill Congress passed eliminated a loophole in Social Security that allowed married couples to boost their collective benefits by thousands of dollars each year using a strategy known as "file and suspend."
Unfortunately for couples who are near retirement. this strategy is disappearing after April 30.
Here's how the file-and-suspend strategy works. One retired worker, upon reaching their full retirement age, files for Social Security benefits and then immediately suspends them. This allows them to accrue delayed - retirement credits, which raise their benefits by 8% per year up until age 70. In the meantime, the beneficiary's spouse can claim spousal benefits and leave their own benefits untouched so they, too, can grow by 8% per year. Therefore, both partners are earning delayed - retirement credits, even while one of them is receiving spousal benefits. Retirees who file and suspend can receive an extra $30,000 to $60,000 between the time one starts drawing spousal benefits and when they eventually start drawing their own benefits. which will be significantly larger than they would have been if claimed earlier.
To file and suspend, you must have reached yourВ full retirement age, which varies based on when you were born. The spousal benefit received is one-half of the benefit amount of the spouse who suspended his or her benefit.
What makes it great
This strategy doesn't work for everyone, but it can be a serious boon to some married couples. Allowing your benefits to grow until you reach age 70 not only maximizes your benefit, but also amplifies the effect of any future cost-of-living adjustments that the Social Security Administration makes. If the SSA increases everyone's benefits by 2% to keep up with inflation, then you'll get a bigger raise if your benefits are already maxed out. Additionally, any survivor benefits that might go to your loved ones will be based on this higher benefit level.
If that weren't enough, the partner who's receiving spousal benefits can continue to do so beyond age 70 if theirВ ownВ benefit would be lower than their current spousal benefit. Similarly, if the spouse with the higher earnings record dies first, then the surviving spouse has the option to collect the higher of his or her own benefit or the survivor benefit based on the deceased spouse's earnings record.
Who can still file and suspend?
If you were born before Jan. 1, 1954, then you may still file a restricted application to receive a spousal benefit based on your spouse's earnings record, so long as he or she is drawing a benefit. Your own benefit can continue to grow until age 70 as before. You still must have reached your full retirement age to do this.
Those who are eligible to use the file-and-suspend strategy must submit their paperwork for both the file and suspend and the restricted application before April 30.
What if you can't file and suspend?
After April 30, this strategy is off the table, even if you're currently eligible. If you suspend your benefits, nobody else will be allowed to draw a benefit off your earnings record. For couples, that includes spousal benefits. В And if you file a restricted application for benefits based on someone else's earnings record, this will trigger new "deemed filing" rules, meaning that you'll be deemed to have filed for any benefits available to you. This eliminates your ability to draw a benefit based on someone else's earnings record while allowing your own benefit to grow until a later date.
Couples who have missed the window will need to look at alternative Social Security claiming strategies as part of their overall retirement planning. Although this gravy train is coming to a halt, there are fortunately many other ways to maximize your retirement income. and you can read about themВ here on Fool. com.
SPONSOR CONTENT: The world's most boring way to turn your retirement portfolio into a cash machine
If you could use more retirement income then you are going to want to pay attention. In a new webinar, The Motley Fool's Investment Income Expert, James Early, provides a 5-step blueprint to pocket cash in almost any market. Usually his strategies are only available to paying members of Motley Fool Income Investor. But, for now, you can view this webinar FREE. Simply click hereВ to view the webinar while it's still available.
Try any of our Foolish newsletter servicesВ free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe thatВ considering a diverse range of insightsВ makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has aВ disclosure policy.
The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.
EconomГa Donald Trump's 2 possibly scary approaches to fix Social Security
Until then, we can only speculate on whether Trump will rely on one of his previously discussed solutions. The world's most boring way to turn your retirement portfolio into a cash machineIf you could use more retirement income then you are going to want to pay attention. This reduction in benefits could be catastrophic for low-income Americans relying on Social Security as their primary source of income in retirement. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.
Amid the bickering of this year's presidential debates, a number of issues have emerged. Perhaps none has worked its way into the limelight more than Social Security .
Often thought of as America's most important entitlement program, Social Security is designed to provide a financial foundation for low-income retirees during their golden years, as well as supply income to disabled persons and survivors of deceased workers. Unfortunately, Social Security 's current path is unsustainable, and both the voting public and politicians vying for the White House know it.
Social Security is coming to a crossroads
Based on the most recent Social Security Trustees' report, the program can continue making benefits payments without any changes for roughly 19 more years. However, by 2035 the cash reserves for the Old Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance Trust will be depleted. The end result is that a 21% cut in benefits would be needed to sustain the program (and payments) for another 52 years.
Why is this happening? It's pretty much a result of two major demographic shifts. First, people are living longer than ever before in the United States. Based on the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the average American is living to be about 79 years old, or about nine years longer than five decades prior. If beneficiaries are living longer, it means the ability to pull benefits for a longer period of time, thus draining the OASDI.
The other issue is that baby boomers are retiring in growing numbers. As boomers shift out of the workforce, there simply isn't enough payroll tax revenue being generated by new workers and existing workers to cover the expected jump in payments to eligible beneficiaries.
In sum, Social Security needs some tweaking. but the nature of that tweaking has long been up to debate.
Donald Trump's hypothetical Social Security fixes pose serious concerns
Many of the candidates for president have released some detail as to how they would counter the pressure Social Security is facing. However, one candidate who's withdrawn from the Social Security debate is Republican front-runner Donald Trump.
It's not uncommon for presidential candidates to reveal their stance on issues in slivers as opposed to giant press releases, but it's somewhat interesting that Trump hasn't revealed his stance on Social Security. a major issue concerning nearly all Americans, during this election cycle (with the exception of stating in October that he'd give up his Social Security benefits in retirement. and calling on other well-to-do persons to do the same).
Yet, in spite of Trump's relative silence, we do have more than a decade's worth of his views on Social Security that can be pored over. Prior to his current presidential run, Trump has been vocal about a handful of "fixes" that he believed would be best for Social Security. Today, we'll look at two of Trump's hypothetical solutions to fix Social Security. as well as how dangerous his two plans could actually be.
1. Privatize a portion of the program
OK, so you'll need to dust off your way-back machine for this, but back in January 2000 Donald Trump releasedВ The America We Deserve, a book that highlighted a number of fixes to problems that were at the time plaguing America. Among the problems Trump covered was Social Security. The following is a passage from Trump's book:
On one hand, the idea of being able to invest a portion of my Social Security benefits as I see fit sounds great to me. Then again, I've been actively researching individual stocks for almost two decades. Some Americans simply don't have the time, dedication, or financial know-how to manage investment accounts on their own. If Americans were allowed to make investment decisions with their Social Security benefits and wound up losing money, it could put them in a precarious financial position in retirement. Additionally, lower-income workers might be more liable to take unnecessary investments risks in order to make up for their low wages, thus increasing their chances of losing money.
Privatizing any portion of the program could prove dangerous.
In 2017, at a Conservative Political Action Conference. Trump announced that trying to adversely change Social Security. Medicare, or Medicaid during an election simply wasn't a smart move. Here's what Trump actually said according toВ The Washington Times,
This statement, which is only from three years ago, could help explain why Trump has avoided taking a firm stance on fixing Social Security. Trump's fellow Republicans have offered a number of solutions, including Ted Cruz, Trump's primary competitor within the Republican Party, who wouldВ partially privatize Social Security В as well as raise the retirement age. Raising the retirement age to reflect an aging population is a common solution for Republicans, but one that Trump has avoided endorsing.
Trump's lack of clarity on the issue could signify that his best solution might be to simply kick the can down the road for another day. Doing nothing will indeed solve Social Security 's imminent funding shortfall, but in 19 years it'll ultimately result in a 21% benefits haircut. This reduction in benefits could be catastrophic for low-income Americans relying on Social Security as their primary source of income in retirement. Furthermore, doing nothing could strain income security programs that are in place to ensure that retirees have access to affordable food and housing.
If there is some solace here, Trump in 2011 also referred to Social Security as "honoring a deal," so it doesn't look as if he'd let the program wither away. However, his inaction also implies he might be willing to do nothing during his presidential term, leaving a decision on the program's future to someone else.
Keep this in mind
It's important to once again point out that we're looking at Trump's proposals from ahypothetical standpoint. It's not uncommon for politicians' views on an issue to evolve over time, so it's possible Trump's current views no longer match up with what he had to say three or 16 years prior. However, the simple fact that Trump has only scratched the surface on a Social Security fix, combined with his prior commentary, is a bit worrisome for lower-income retirees and pre-retirees who may be forced to rely on Social Security for a substantial portion of their income in retirement .
In the coming weeks and months I would look for Trump to heed the voting public's concerns regarding Social Security and issue a somewhat detailed plan on how he'd propose to fix it. Until then, we can only speculate on whether Trump will rely on one of his previously discussed solutions.
The world's most boring way to turn your retirement portfolio into a cash machine
If you could use more retirement income then you are going to want to pay attention. In a new webinar, The Motley Fool's Investment Income Expert, James Early, provides a 5-step blueprint to pocket cash in almost any market. Usually his strategies are only available to paying members of Motley Fool Income Investor. But, for now, you can view this webinar FREE. Simply click hereВ to view the webinar while it's still available.
Sean WilliamsВ has no material interest in any companies mentioned in this article. You can follow him on CAPS under the screen nameВ TMFUltraLong, track every pick he makes under the screen nameTrackUltraLong, and check him out on Twitter, where he goes by the [email protected]
The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter servicesВ free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe thatВ considering a diverse range of insightsВ makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has aВ disclosure policy.
The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.
Over the past 20 years, alternative asset manager Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (TSX:BAM. A) (NYSE:BAM) has generated an 18% annual return for its shareholders, which is certainly a very respectable number. And the future looks very promising as well.
While presenting at Brookfield’s annual Investor Day last October, CEO Bruce Flatt claimed that if the company achieves its targets, the shares should trade at US$150 in 10 years. CFO Brian Lawson gave more of a near-term target, saying that the shares could trade at US$74 in five years based on very reasonable assumptions.
We’ll break down Mr. Lawson’s thinking.
Brookfield: an overview
Brookfield manages three publicly traded funds: Brookfield Property Partners . Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners . and Brookfield Infrastructure Partners . The company also runs a number of private funds through its Private Equity division.
This allows Brookfield to make money in two ways. First of all, the company charges these funds management fees. Secondly, Brookfield invests its own capital in these funds alongside clients, generating an investment return for itself.
Brookfield’s value can thus be divided into two parts: fees and capital. Regarding investment fees, Brookfield charges two types: base fees and carried interest.
Base fees are calculated based on total assets under management; for example, Brookfield charges 1.25% on its public funds. And the company thinks it can grow earnings from these fees at 21% annually over the next five years. Carried interest is based on investment performance, which is harder to predict (especially while so many funds are at their early stages). But Brookfield thinks it can grow its annual carried interest income at 13% annually.
Brookfield also thinks it can grow its own capital at 12-15% per year, which seems very achievable given past performance. This would result in over US$50 billion of capital by 2020. When adding it to the value of fee-related earnings and subtracting net debt, Brookfield would be worth US$75 billion, or US$74 per share. Based on today’s share price, that would equal a return of just over 16%.
Brookfield does not come without risks. Two in particular stand out.
First of all, the numbers above assume that Brookfield continues to make wise investments. So if there are any execution errors or the company loses its focus at all, then the stock price will suffer.
More importantly, Brookfield is known to be an opaque company, one in which you have to rely on management’s word when estimating how much the company is worth. To be fair, this is partially mitigated by the fact that most of Brookfield’s assets are in publicly traded vehicles. But this is certainly a risk you have to be aware of.
That being the case, Brookfield is an excellent option for long-term investors, and today’s stock price doesn’t fully reflect that.
Another top stock besides Brookfield
Exports of liquefied natural gas could be one of the best growth opportunities out there for long-term investors. And, we think we've identified the Canadian company to invest in. It's a global company with operations across nearly 20 countries and 70 locations. We like it so much, we've named it as 1 Top Stock for 2017 and Beyond . To find out why, click here now to learn how to access your FREE copy today!
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